Yearly discount rate (%)
|
|
|
|
|
Costs and outcomes (range)
|
|
3 (0-6)
|
|
[51]
|
Transitional probability baseline parameters
|
|
|
|
|
Probability of stable to CHB state
|
Beta
|
0.143
|
0.0650
|
[31]
|
Probability of CHB to stable state
|
Beta
|
0.056
|
0.0180
|
[32]
|
Probability of CHB to compensated in 1st-10th year
|
Beta
|
0.054
|
0.0543
|
[33]
|
Probability of CHB to compensated in 11th-20th year
|
Beta
|
0.134
|
0.1338
|
[33]
|
Probability of CHB to compensated in >20th year
|
Beta
|
0.329
|
0.3292
|
[33]
|
Probability of CHB to HCC in 1st-5th year
|
Beta
|
0.000
|
0.0000
|
[34]
|
Probability of CHB to HCC in 6th-10th year
|
Beta
|
0.006
|
0.0061
|
[34]
|
Probability of CHB to HCC in >10th year
|
Beta
|
0.008
|
0.0081
|
[34]
|
Probability of CHB to death in 1st-5th year
|
Beta
|
0.010
|
0.0102
|
[34]
|
Probability of CHB to death in 6th-10th year
|
Beta
|
0.014
|
0.0144
|
[34]
|
Probability of CHB to death in >10th year
|
Beta
|
0.025
|
0.0252
|
[34]
|
Probability of compensated to decompensated in 1st-3rd year
|
Normal
|
0.042
|
0.0003
|
[35]
|
Probability of compensated to decompensated in 4th-5th year
|
Normal
|
0.094
|
0.0005
|
[35]
|
Probability of compensated to decompensated in >5th year
|
Normal
|
0.066
|
0.0003
|
[35]
|
Probability of compensated to HCC in 1st-3rd year
|
Normal
|
0.014
|
0.0002
|
[35]
|
Probability of compensated to in HCC 4th-5th year
|
Normal
|
0.036
|
0.0003
|
[35]
|
Probability of compensated to HCC in >5th year
|
Normal
|
0.030
|
0.0002
|
[35]
|
Probability of compensated to death in 1st-3rd year
|
Beta
|
0.014
|
0.0135
|
[35]
|
Probability of compensated to death in >3rd year
|
Beta
|
0.046
|
0.0461
|
[35]
|
Probability of decompensated to HCC
|
Beta
|
0.035
|
0.0354
|
[36]
|
Probability of decompensated to death in 1st year
|
Normal
|
0.260
|
0.0004
|
[37]
|
Probability of decompensated to death in 2nd year
|
Normal
|
0.390
|
0.0005
|
[37]
|
Probability of decompensated to death in >2nd year
|
Normal
|
0.240
|
0.0003
|
[37]
|
Probability of HCC to death in 1st year
|
Beta
|
0.848
|
0.0011
|
[37]
|
Probability of HCC to death in >1st year
|
Beta
|
0.920
|
0.0009
|
[37]
|
Transitional probability of treatment parameters
|
|
|
|
|
Probability of CHB to compensated
|
Beta
|
0.006
|
0.0023
|
[38]
|
Probability of CHB to HCC
|
Beta
|
0.009
|
0.0045
|
[39]
|
Probability of CHB to death
|
Beta
|
0.002
|
0.0023
|
[39]
|
Probability of compensated to HCC
|
Beta
|
0.015
|
0.0034
|
[40]
|
Probability of compensated to death
|
Beta
|
0.007
|
0.0070
|
[39]
|
Probability of decompensated to HCC
|
Beta
|
0.035
|
0.0127
|
[41]
|
Probability of decompensated to death
|
Beta
|
0.126
|
0.0291
|
[42]
|
Probability of compensated to CHB
|
Beta
|
0.478
|
0.0665
|
[43]
|
Probability of HCC to death
|
Beta
|
0.034
|
0.0227
|
[44]
|
Relative risk of seroconversion of lamivudine
|
Normal
|
3.519
|
1.3707
|
[30]
|
Relative risk of seroconversion of adefovir
|
Normal
|
3.028
|
1.3833
|
[30]
|
Relative risk of seroconversion of telbivudine
|
Normal
|
4.286
|
1.4054
|
[30]
|
Relative risk of seroconversion of entecavir
|
Normal
|
3.846
|
1.3833
|
[30]
|
Relative risk of seroconversion of pegylated interferon
|
Normal
|
5.356
|
1.4987
|
[30]
|
Relative risk of seroconversion of tenofovir
|
Normal
|
4.167
|
1.6403
|
[30]
|
Probability of delay seroconversion of pegylated interferon
|
Normal
|
0.410
|
0.0489
|
[27]
|
Probability of lamivudine resistance
|
Beta
|
0.214
|
0.0214
|
[28]
|
Probability of adefovir resistance
|
Beta
|
0.066
|
0.0066
|
[28]
|
Probability of telbivudine resistance
|
Beta
|
0.089
|
0.0089
|
[28]
|
Probability of entecavir resistance
|
Beta
|
0.002
|
0.0002
|
[28]
|
Probability of tenofovir resistance
|
Beta
|
0.000
|
0.0000
|
[28]
|
Annual direct medical cost
|
|
|
|
|
Cost of generic lamivudine
|
Gamma
|
1,797
|
180
|
[46]
|
Cost of original lamivudine
|
Gamma
|
34,871
|
3,487
|
[46]
|
Cost of adefovir
|
Gamma
|
70,298
|
7,030
|
[46]
|
Cost of telbivudine
|
Gamma
|
51,504
|
5,150
|
[46]
|
Cost of entecavir
|
Gamma
|
85,745
|
8,575
|
[46]
|
Cost of tenofovir
|
Gamma
|
15,559
|
1,556
|
[46]
|
Cost of pegylated interferon
|
Gamma
|
527,379
|
52,738
|
[46]
|
Cost of treatment of compensated cirrhosis
|
Gamma
|
81,264
|
81,264
|
[48]
|
Cost of treatment of decompensated cirrhosis
|
Gamma
|
125,127
|
125,127
|
[48]
|
Cost of treatment of HCC
|
Gamma
|
153,021
|
153,021
|
[48]
|
Cost of laboratory for screening (i.e., HBeAg, HBeAb)
|
Gamma
|
650
|
650
|
[47]
|
Cost of laboratory for pre-treatment
|
Gamma
|
3,350
|
3,350
|
[47]
|
Cost of laboratory for monitoring
|
Gamma
|
4,200
|
4,200
|
[47]
|
Cost of laboratory monitoring for pegylated interferon
|
Gamma
|
10,620
|
10,620
|
[47]
|
Cost of laboratory monitor for adefovir
|
Gamma
|
4,560
|
4,560
|
[47]
|
Cost of laboratory for post-treatment
|
Gamma
|
4,900
|
4,900
|
[47]
|
Annual direct non-medical cost
|
|
|
|
|
Cost of transportation
|
Gamma
|
571
|
571
|
[54]
|
Cost of food
|
Gamma
|
210
|
210
|
[54]
|
Annual indirect cost
|
|
|
|
|
Cost of time loss due to receiving treatment
|
Gamma
|
824
|
824
|
[49]
|
Cost of productivity loss of compensated cirrhosis
|
Gamma
|
48
|
48
|
[48,49]
|
Cost of productivity loss of decompensated cirrhosis
|
Gamma
|
627
|
627
|
[48,49]
|
Cost of productivity loss of HCC
|
Gamma
|
1,701
|
1,701
|
[48,49]
|
Utility
|
|
|
|
|
Utility weight for CHB
|
Normal
|
0.68
|
0.00005
|
[53]
|
Utility weight for compensated cirrhosis
|
Normal
|
0.69
|
0.00016
|
[53]
|
Utility weight for decompensated cirrhosis
|
Normal
|
0.35
|
0.00031
|
[53]
|
Utility weight for HCC |
Normal |
0.38 |
0.00026 |
[53] |