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. 2014 Jan 9;53(2):391–401. doi: 10.1007/s00411-013-0508-3

Table 3.

Predicted thyroid cancer risk (mean and 95 % confidence interval) in the Fukushima Prefecture: baseline and attributable to radiation exposure for thyroid doses of 50 and 20 mSv assumed for the most exposed population groups

Average thyroid dose (mSv) Thyroid cancer Thyroid cancer risk (%) for different periods after exposure
10 years 20 years 50 years
Baseline 0.055 (0.006; 0.14) 0.23 (0.027; 0.58) 2.2 (0.27; 5.3)
20 Attributable 0.0057 (0.0002; 0.025) 0.021 (0.0007; 0.081) 0.13 (0.005; 0.40)
50 Attributable 0.014 (0.0004; 0.063) 0.053 (0.002; 0.20) 0.32 (0.011; 1.0)