Table 2.

Percentage change in projected or future (2011–2050) drought events relative to historic data (1891–2010) for all die-off sites in the analysis. Historic and future drought attributes are based on drought analysis of daily data from CSIRO Mk 3.5, A2 SRES scenario, medium sensitivity. Drought integral refers to the sum of monthly SPEI values during the event. Extreme events are defined as those with duration ≥8 months and where monthly SPEI and MTI values <0.02 and >0.98 percentiles, respectively. The return interval refers to the mean number of years between drought events.

Site	All drought events					Extreme drought events
	% change in mean duration	% change mean intensity	% change mean integral	% change frequency per decade	% change heat waves	% change frequency per decade	Historic return interval (years)	Future return interval (years)
Alpha	76	8	107	−12	122	11	14	12
Armidale	3	1	11	19	66	11	18	16
Bollon	11	6	18	48	−55	48	21	8
Canberra	−10	6	−2	36	72	85	18	10
Charters Towers	29	9	35	16	49	11	25	25
Cobar	30	15	47	44	184	122	18	7
Cooma	−16	14	−9	48	82	27	14	12
Hobart	35	2	42	−9	118	−26	41	49
Ipswich	22	1	31	24	90	91	31	8
Jarrahdale	35	6	42	9	114	11	21	16
Mt Macedon	26	0	25	38	101	234	25	8
Mathinna	32	6	41	2	41	178	62	10
Yeelirrie	−15	8	−6	79	117	122	18	7
Tumbarumba	0	8	4	53	65	−36	18	25
Wilcannia	13	15	38	30	98	85	21	10
Mean	18	7	28	28	84	65	24	15
Min	−16	0	−9	−12	−55	−36	14	7
Max	76	15	107	79	184	234	62	49