Table 3.

Details on the type of model used to fit the joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distribution for the observed and projected or future (based on the CSIRO Mk 3.5, A2 SRES scenario) for each site. For the observed data, the probability of extreme conditions represents the joint probability at the 0.02 and 0.98 percentiles for the observed monthly SPEI and MTI marginal distributions respectively. The future probability of extreme conditions represents the probability under the projected joint distribution function at the 0.02 and 0.98 percentiles of the observed monthly SPEI and MTI marginal distributions respectively. Superscript letters after the site name refers to panels shown in Fig. 1.

Site	Observed		Future
	Fitted distribution	Joint probability of extreme conditions	Fitted distribution	Joint probability of extreme conditions	% change from observed
Alphab	Gaussian	0.01	Gaussian	0.07	214
Armidalec	Gaussian	0.02	Gaussian	0.03	106
Bollon	Gaussian	0.01	Student-t	0.03	173
Canberrad	Frank	0.02	Gaussian	0.04	56
Charters Towersa	Student-t	0.02	Student-t	0.06	174
Cobar	Gaussian	0.02	Gaussian	0.06	259
Cooma	Gaussian	0.02	Gaussian	0.03	59
Hobartf	Gaussian	0.02	Gaussian	0.04	86
Ipswich	Frank	0.03	Gaussian	0.07	135
Jarrahdaleg	Student-t	0.01	Gaussian	0.03	139
Mt Macedone	Gaussian	0.03	Student-t	0.08	129
Mathinna	Frank	0.02	Gaussian	0.04	114
Yeelirrie	Gaussian	0.02	Gaussian	0.07	218
Tumbarumba	Gaussian	0.02	Gaussian	0.05	226
Wilcannia	Gaussian	0.02	Gaussian	0.08	270
				Mean	157
				Min	56
				Max	270