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. 2014 Apr 24;10(4):e1003583. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003583

Figure 7. Confidence in the prediction.

Figure 7

All forecasts, 565,500 in total, were first categorized according to the mode predicted peak, e.g., 1–3 weeks in the future (the first row) or 3–5 weeks in the past (the last row); within each category, forecasts were further binned by the percentage of ensemble members predicting the mode (PEMPM, e.g., 50–60%) as indicated on the x-axis; the accuracy of forecasts within each bin were then calculated, as shown on the y-axis. The size of the dot in each PEMPM bin indicates the portion of forecasts, within each category, falling into a corresponding bin. Each column (A–F) shows the relationship between the forecast accuracy and the PEMPM for a different filter.