Table 2.

Simulated patterns of evolution for the temperature sum required for budburst (F_critBB). For each population, the changes in F_critBB within generation G0 (Cw) measures the intensity of selection, while the change between generations G0 and G5 (Cb) measures the response to selection. The phenotypic variance for F_critBB (V_P) was computed at the last year of generation G5; in scenarios with h² = 1 (B to F; Ha and Hb), V_P is also the additive variance V_A. In scenario A, V_A = 0; in scenario G, V_P = V_A + V_E. Population Alt1 is not shown because of low population size.

	Alt2			Alt3			Alt4			Alt5
Population <	Cb	Cw	VP	Cb	Cw	VP	Cb	Cw	VP	Cb	Cw	VP
A – Neutral	−0.42	1.32	21.68	0.48	−4.28	18.11	−0.08	−1.06	21.13	0.00	−0.15	21.37
B – Adaptive evolution	1.18	1.57	21.21	−4.72	−3.61	13.60	−2.85	−1.11	20.18	−1.06	−0.21	19.64
C – Evolution without mortality	0.00	0.00	21.15	−0.24	0.00	19.43	−0.52	0.00	20.51	−0.31	0.00	21.10
D – Evolution without differential reproduction	1.33	1.36	21.68	−4.76	−3.47	14.55	−2.69	−0.81	19.40	−0.88	−0.15	20.41
E – Evolution, Type I mortality	−0.23	0.00	19.64	−4.93	−3.72	14.81	−2.63	−1.06	19.03	−0.94	−0.18	20.39
F – Evolution, Type II mortality	0.55	0.98	20.34	−0.03	−0.01	19.81	0.03	0.00	20.50	0.06	0.00	19.98
G – Evolution, reduced heritability	0.60	1.88	33.72	−3.79	−6.09	24.84	−2.07	−1.60	32.31	−0.90	−0.35	31.49
Ha – Evolution, moderate effect of frost	−1.21	−0.40	18.37	−0.41	−0.02	20.30	−3.71	−2.07	17.43	−0.93	−0.30	18.37
Hb – Evolution, strong effect of frost	−1.15	−0.39	18.61	−0.21	0.03	19.42	−4.01	−3.15	18.21	−1.17	−0.33	19.57