Table 3.

Continuous time hazard models predicting first birth in first marriage

	White women		Black women
	b	se	b	se
Year of marriage
1940–49	−0.10	0.08	not observed
1950–54	−0.05	0.07
1955–59 (omitted)
1960–64	0.05	0.08	0.06	0.19
1965–69	0.10	0.07	−0.04	0.20
1970–74	−0.09	0.09	0.02	0.19
1975–79	−0.06	0.09	0.20	0.19
1980–84	0.00	0.08	0.14	0.22
1985–89	0.04	0.09	−0.09	0.25
1990–94	0.04	0.10	0.11	0.28
1995–2002	−0.04	0.12	0.02	0.36
Interactions: marriage duration x year of marriage
0–7 months x:
1940–49	−0.56	0.13***	not observed
1950–54	−0.60	0.13***
1955–59 (omitted)
1960–64	0.27	0.11*	−0.15	0.22
1965–69	0.33	0.11**	−0.03	0.24
1970–74	0.48	0.11***	−0.27	0.23
1975–79	0.36	0.14**	−0.65	0.24**
1980–84	0.40	0.11***	−0.38	0.27
1985–89	0.37	0.13**	−0.43	0.31
1990–94	0.44	0.15**	−0.54	0.34
1995–2002	0.44	0.23*	0.00	0.41
8–12 months x:
1940–49	−0.17	0.10+	not observed
1950–54	−0.09	0.09
1955–59 (omitted)
1960–64	−0.19	0.10+	0.01	0.24
1965–69	−0.65	0.09***	−0.26	0.26
1970–74	−1.01	0.12***	−0.30	0.24
1975–79	−1.24	0.15***	−0.61	0.26*
1980–84	−1.05	0.13***	−0.51	0.29+
1985–89	−1.11	0.14***	−0.46	0.35
1990–94	−1.27	0.16***	−0.99	0.37**
1995–2002	−1.18	0.19***	−0.12	0.47
13–24 months x:
1940–49	−0.18	0.09+	not observed
1950–54	−0.14	0.09
1955–59 (omitted)
1960–64	−0.22	0.10*	−0.06	0.24
1965–69	−0.64	0.09***	−0.04	0.23
1970–74	−0.77	0.10***	−0.36	0.22+
1975–79	−0.82	0.11***	−0.53	0.23*
1980–84	−0.80	0.11***	−0.26	0.25
1985–89	−0.87	0.11***	−0.30	0.30
1990–94	−0.76	0.13***	−1.17	0.35***
1995–2002	−0.60	0.15***	0.02	0.39
25–36 months x:
1940–49	−0.21	0.12+	not observed
1950–54	−0.12	0.11
1955–59 (omitted)
1960–64	−0.24	0.11*	−0.37	0.33
1965–69	−0.40	0.11***	−0.23	0.31
1970–74	−0.53	0.13***	−0.10	0.31
1975–79	−0.49	0.14***	−0.34	0.31
1980–84	−0.43	0.12***	−0.51	0.34
1985–89	−0.49	0.13***	0.10	0.38
1990–94	−0.41	0.14**	−0.54	0.37
1995–2002	−0.24	0.18	−0.67	0.67
Sociodemographic controls
Age at marriage
Under 18	0.42	0.03***	0.47	0.06***
18–19	0.24	0.02***	0.27	0.05***
20–24 (omitted)
25 or over	−0.21	0.03***	−0.58	0.06***
Education
No h.s. degree	0.16	0.03***	−0.05	0.05
H.s. degree (omitted)
Some college	−0.12	0.02***	−0.12	0.06*
B.A. or higher	−0.37	0.03***	−0.17	0.06**
Parity at marriage	−0.12	0.05**	−0.18	0.03***
−2 log likelihood	398408		28081

Data: Fertility surveys from 1955–2002 harmonized by the IFSS project. N=25157 marriages to white women and 7951 marriages to black women with non-missing dates of marriage and first birth in the 15 years prior to each survey. Surveys before 1973 combine Hispanic and non-Hispanic respondents; in surveys after 1973, Hispanic respondents are excluded from analysis. Results are from Cox regression models with non-parametric baseline hazards.