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. 2014 Apr 1;6:ecurrents.outbreaks.f3fdeb08c5b9de7c09ed9cbcef5f01f2. [Version 1] doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.f3fdeb08c5b9de7c09ed9cbcef5f01f2

EHEC/HUS outbreak origin reconstruction — Each panel depicts a scatterplot of mean and standard deviation (see Eqs. (14)) of effective distances from candidate nodes to the subset of nodes that have nonzero incidence for weeks after outbreak onset. All districts are considered as potential candidates as outbreak origin. Symbol size quantifies population size of each district, blueness quantifies incidence in the respective week. A few large district are labeled. The district with combined minimal mean and variance (closest to the origin) has a high likelihood of being the actual 2011 EHEC/HUS outbreak origin. The actual outbreak origin Uelzen in marked by a red cross.

Inline graphic — Each panel depicts a scatterplot of mean and standard deviation (see Eqs. (14)) of effective distances from candidate nodes to the subset of nodes that have nonzero incidence for weeks after outbreak onset. All districts are considered as potential candidates as outbreak origin. Symbol size quantifies population size of each district, blueness quantifies incidence in the respective week. A few large district are labeled. The district with combined minimal mean and variance (closest to the origin) has a high likelihood of being the actual 2011 EHEC/HUS outbreak origin. The actual outbreak origin Uelzen in marked by a red cross.