Table 3.
The AUROC and optimal operational characteristics in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality for the different prognostic scores calculated on the day of admission (a) and re-calculated after 7 days (b)
| Score | AUROC | Std. err | 95% CI | Sensitivity* | Specificity* | PPV* | NPV* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a, Admission (n = 71) | |||||||
| 30-day mortality | |||||||
| MELD | 0.79 | 0.085 | 0.62–0.95 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.38 | 0.96 |
| DF | 0.71 | 0.092 | 0.53–0.89 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| GAHS | 0.75 | 0.073 | 0.61–0.89 | 0.90 | 0.59 | 0.27 | 0.94 |
| ABIC | 0.71 | 0.079 | 0.55–0.86 | 1.00/0.60 | 0.20/0.80 | 0.17/0.33 | 1.00/0.92 |
| MELD-Na | 0.68 | 0.087 | 0.50–0.84 | 0.30 | 0.82 | 0.22 | 0.88 |
| UKELD | 0.56 | 0.087 | 0.39–0.73 | 0.90 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 0.96 |
| 90-day mortality | |||||||
| MELD | 0.84 | 0.064 | 0.71–0.96 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 0.96 |
| DF | 0.74 | 0.062 | 0.61–0.86 | 1.00 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| GAHS | 0.78 | 0.060 | 0.67–0.90 | 0.93 | 0.63 | 0.38 | 0.97 |
| ABIC | 0.78 | 0.072 | 0.64–0.92 | 1.00/0.64 | 0.21/0.84 | 0.24/0.50 | 1.00/0.91 |
| MELD-Na | 0.76 | 0.069 | 0.62–0.89 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| UKELD | 0.68 | 0.076 | 0.53–0.83 | 0.93 | 0.46 | 0.30 | 0.96 |
| b, Day 7 from admission (n = 63) | |||||||
| 30-day mortality | |||||||
| MELD | 0.84 | 0.084 | 0.68–1.00 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.43 | 0.93 |
| DF | 0.85 | 0.058 | 0.74–0.96 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 0.24 | 1.00 |
| GAHS | 0.77 | 0.070 | 0.63–0.91 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.25 | 0.91 |
| ABIC | 0.74 | 0.092 | 0.54–0.90 | 0.80/0.30 | 0.46/0.93 | 0.20/0.43 | 0.94/0.89 |
| MELD-Na | 0.78 | 0.090 | 0.61–0.96 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.40 | 0.92 |
| UKELD | 0.69 | 0.106 | 0.48–0.89 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.21 | 0.89 |
| 90-day mortality | |||||||
| MELD | 0.86 | 0.062 | 0.73–0.98 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| DF | 0.84 | 0.054 | 0.73–0.94 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| GAHS | 0.79 | 0.061 | 0.67–0.91 | 0.64 | 0.74 | 0.37 | 0.89 |
| ABIC | 0.75 | 0.077 | 0.58–0.88 | 0.79/0.29 | 0.49/0.95 | 0.28/0.57 | 0.90/0.57 |
| MELD-Na | 0.83 | 0.068 | 0.69–0.96 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.50 | 0.85 |
| UKELD | 0.77 | 0.084 | 0.60–0.93 | 0.57 | 0.72 | 0.33 | 0.87 |
AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve; Std. err, standard error; CI, confidence interval; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; DF, Maddrey discriminant function; GAHS, Glascow alcoholic hepatitis score; ABIC, age, bilirubin, international normalised ratio and creatinine score; MELD-Na, modified MELD including sodium; UKELD, United Kingdom model for end-stage liver disease.
Cut-off values used: MELD: 21, DF: 32, GAHS: 9, ABIC: 6.71/9, MELD-Na: 28, UKELD: 56.