Table 3.

Adjusted relative risk estimates for virologic response, expressed as relative risk of achieving undetectable viral load

Intervention	Base case	Base case without 018 study group	Base case without 018 study group; with AI4463023 + TBVIG
Fixed effects analyses
Entecavir 0.5 mg	1.00 (Baseline)	1.00 (Baseline)	1.00 (Baseline)
Adefovir 10 mg	0.33 (0.14, 0.62)	0.23 (0.05, 0.56)	0.33 (0.10, 0.70)
Lamivudine 100 mg	0.38 (0.22, 0.58)	0.38 (0.22, 0.58)	0.52 (0.41, 0.64)
Placebo	0.01 (0.00, 0.03)	0.00 (0.00, 0.02)	0.01 (0.00, 0.03)
Telbivudine 600 mg	0.67 (0.43, 0.92)	0.67 (0.44, 0.92)	0.86 (0.71, 1.01)
Tenofovir 245 mg	1.27 (0.96, 1.47)	1.12 (0.61, 1.43)	1.25 (0.84, 1.48)
Interferon alpha	0.14 (0.05, 0.29)	0.13 (0.05, 0.29)	0.20 (0.08, 0.37)
Peginterferon alpha-2a/2b	0.23 (0.11, 0.39)	0.22 (0.11, 0.39)	0.32 (0.21, 0.46)
Residual deviance	19.48	17.10	21.54
DIC	35.56	32.14	39.15
Random effects analyses
Entecavir 0.5 mg	1.00 (Baseline)	1.00 (Baseline)	1.00 (Baseline)
Adefovir 10 mg	0.33 (0.07, 0.82)	0.27 (0.03, 0.95)	0.29 (0.04, 0.78)
Lamivudine 100 mg	0.37 (0.09, 0.84)	0.42 (0.07, 1.09)	0.51 (0.23, 0.86)
Placebo	0.01 (0.00, 0.06)	0.01 (0.00, 0.07)	0.01 (0.00, 0.04)
Telbivudine 600 mg	0.64 (0.18, 1.19)	0.72 (0.12, 1.39)	0.86 (0.41, 1.27)
Tenofovir 245 mg	1.21 (0.48, 1.51)	1.08 (0.22, 1.52)	1.15 (0.39, 1.50)
Interferon alpha	0.16 (0.01, 0.67)	0.20 (0.01, 0.94)	0.22 (0.03, 0.67)
Peginterferon alpha-2a/2b	0.25 (0.03, 0.88)	0.30 (0.02, 1.13)	0.34 (0.07, 0.88)
Residual deviance	18.23	16.12	19.78
DIC	35.86	32.10	39.07

Results are shown as relative risk (95% credible interval). “Base case” refers to the adjusted analysis undertaken using the 10 studies listed in the document containing appropriate information. As with the unadjusted analyses, a relative risk <1 should be interpreted as a given treatment being less efficacious (that is, worse) than entecavir and a value >1 being more efficacious (that is, better). DIC, deviance information criteria.