Figure 3. Reduction in TB incidence and mortality achievable from shorter-course regimens over time.

Assuming TB incidence of 125 per 100,000/year, and 7% overall treatment default, the implementation of a four-month regimen vs. a six-month regimen results in a 1.9% reduction in incidence at 10 years (vertical line marks year 10 after introduction of a new regimen). Hypothetical two-month and two-week regimens decrease incidence by 4.3% and 6.7% respectively.