Table 2. Selected key input parameters for estimating transmission impact of shorter TB regimens^*.

Parameter	Reference value	Sensitivity analysis range	Reference(s)
Baseline annual incidence (per 100,000 population)	125	62–250	[1]
Transmissions per person-year †	8.5	6.8–20	[31]
% infections progressing immediately to active TB †	15%	5.0–21.0%	[23]
Protection from reinfection w/prior infection	60%	30–100%	[32]–[34]
Relative infectiousness during treatment phase 1 (first 2 weeks) compared to active TB	50%	0–100%	Assumed
Annual risk of reactivation from latent to active TB	0.05%	0.03–0.10%	[35],[36]
Annual risk of relapse after completed treatment	0.10%	0.05–0.20%	[37]
Probability of failure among those who complete treatment	2%	1–4%	[1]
Life expectancy, years	70	40–100	[38]
Active TB mortality, per year	20%	10–40%	[19]
Self-cure without treatment, per year	20%	10–40%	[19]
Case detection ratio	67%	62–70%	[1]

* Additional model parameters are listed in Table 1

^†The transmission rate was initially calibrated to TB incidence. In sensitivity analyses, incidence was varied by varying one of these two parameters (both gave similar results); the two parameters were then also varied over the ranges listed, with the other parameter varied to maintain constant incidence.