Table 4.
Model predictions for a CRC awareness campaign resulting in a 10 % increase in presentation rates for a period of 1 month
| Model predictions for the current population of England evaluated over a lifetime: Change compared to “No awareness campaign” | ||
|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mean (from deterministic analysis) | 95 percentiles from probabilistic sensitivity analysis* |
| CRC incidence–symptomatic presentation Dukes’ Stage A | 26 | (26, 28) |
| B | 52 | (49, 53) |
| C | 33 | (25, 38) |
| D | −92 | (−96, −79) |
| CRC incidence–symptomatic presentation TOTAL | 20 | (19, 24) |
| CRC incidence screen/surveillance detected Dukes’ Stage A | −0 | (0, 0) |
| B | −1 | (−2, −1) |
| C | −2 | (−3, −2) |
| D | −2 | (−3, −1) |
| CRC incidence–screening/surveillance detected TOTAL | −5 | (−7, −5) |
| CRC-specific deaths | −66 | (−69, −56) |
| Deaths with undiagnosed CRC | −14 | (−17, −14) |
| Total costs related to screening (discounted) | −£3,407 | (−4,498, −2,855) |
| Cancer management (inc. pathology) costs (discounted) | £94,443 | (88,853, 116,287) |
| Cost of additional GP consultations/referrals (discounted) | £855,716 | (855,716, 855,716) |
| Cost of awareness campaign (discounted) | £4,499,995 | (4,499,995, 4,499,995) |
| Total cost (discounted) | £5,446,745 | (5,441,070, 5,468,342) |
| Total life-years gained (undiscounted) | 991 | (833, 1,041) |
| Total life-years gained (discounted) | 622 | (516, 657) |
| Total QALYs gained (discounted) | 404 | (322, 439) |
| ICER | £13,496 | (12,407, 16,893) |
| NMB | £2,624,770 | (1,001,887, 3,330,998 |