Table 1. Transition probabilities.

	Incidence ratea	References
Non‐diabetes → diabetes	12.0	Shibasaki et al.9
	11.4	The Funagata Study: Daimon et al.10
Non‐diabetes → dialysis	0.2	An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan as of Dec. 31, 200811
Stroke (non‐diabetes)	1.9	The Hisayama Study: Fujishima et al.12
Myocardial infarction (non‐diabetes)	1.6	The Hisayama Study: Fujishima et al.12
Non‐diabetes → death	4.8	Vital Statistics in Japan (2007)
Diabetes → dialysis	1.8	An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan as of Dec. 31, 200811
Stroke (diabetes)	6.5	The Hisayama Study: Fujishima et al.12
Myocardial infarction (diabetes)	5.0	The Hisayama Study: Fujishima et al.12
Diabetes → death	16.8	The Funagata Study: Tominaga et al.13
Dialysis → death	96.0	An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan as of Dec. 31, 200811

^aIncidence rate per 1,000 person‐years.