Table 1.

Parameters of the model

Variable	Value	Reference
Natural history
Age-specific incidence Adenoma <10 mm
50-54	0.24	Bishop et al. (derived from prevalence and incidence data presented in tables 32 and 35)
55-59	0.30
60-64	0.32
65-69	0.27
≥ 70	0.22
Age-specific incidence Adenoma ≥10 mm
50-54	0.07
55-59	0.08
60-64	0.1
65-69	0.16
≥ 70	0.21
CRC Dukes’ A
50-54	0.0012
55-59	0.0022
60-64	0.0033
65-69	0.005
≥ 70	0.0067
CRC Dukes’ B
50-54	0.0005
55-59	0.001
60-64	0.0016
65-69	0.0023
≥ 70	0.0031
CRC Dukes’ C
50-54	0.0005
55-59	0.0008
60-64	0.0013
65-69	0.002
≥ 70	0.0027
CRC Dukes’ D
50-54	0.0001
55-59	0.0003
60-64	0.0004
65-69	0.0007
≥ 70	0.0009
Yearly probability of death from CRC by stage
Dukes’ A	0.034
Dukes’ B	0.051
Dukes’ C	0.085	Tran et al.
Dukes’ D	0.282
Probability of CRC diagnosis without screening programme
Dukes’ A	0.091	Bishop et al. (table 34)
Dukes’ B	0.2948
Dukes’ C	0.7613
Dukes’ D	1
Screening test characteristics
iFOBT
Sensitivity for CRC	0.479	Bishop et al. (table 36)
Sensitivity for polyps’	0.2119	Bishop et al. (table 36)
Specificity	0.9146	Bishop et al. (table 36)
Screening uptake	40%	NBCSP pilot
Probability of colonoscopy after positive iFOBT	65%
Colonoscopy
Sensitivity for CRC	0.95	Bishop et al. (table 36)
Sensitivity for polyps	0.85	NHMRC 2005
Specificity	1	Bishop et al. (table 36)
Participation	40%	Assumption
Cost per activity per individual (AU$)
iFOBT (invitation + test kit)	$10.00	Bishop et al. (table 40)
iFOBT pathology	$20.00
GP visit and referral	$32.10
Colonoscopy	$1,082.00
Colonoscopy with polypectomy	$1,606.00
Annual CRC treatment costs per individual (AU$)
CRC Dukes’ A	$1,716.00	Tran et al.
CRC Dukes’ B	$4,114.00
CRC Dukes’ C	$9,990.50
CRC Dukes’ D	$35,578.00