Table 2.
Performance of models in the Edinburgh Stroke Study
| |
Recurrent stroke (50/671)
a
|
Any vascular event (80/671)
a
|
Original development outcome
b
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | n/N | AUROCC | 95% CI | n/N | AUROCC | 95% CI | n/N | AUROCC | 95% CI |
| Clinical gestalt |
40/575 |
0.53 |
0.44 to 0.63 |
63/574 |
0.56 |
0.48 to 0.64 |
- |
- |
- |
| ESRS |
50/664 |
0.56 |
0.48 to 0.64 |
80/664 |
0.57 |
0.50 to 0.63 |
101/1,224 |
0.54 |
0.49 to 0.60 |
| SPI-II |
50/669 |
0.58 |
0.49 to 0.66 |
80/669 |
0.59 |
0.52 to 0.66 |
274/1,253 |
0.63 |
0.59 to 0.67 |
| RRE-90c |
50/671 |
0.61 |
0.52 to 0.69 |
80/671 |
0.59 |
0.53 to 0.66 |
52/1,254 |
0.59 |
0.51 to 0.67 |
| Putaala |
50/669 |
0.48 |
0.39 to 0.57 |
80/669 |
0.56 |
0.49 to 0.63 |
269/1,247 |
0.65 |
0.61 to 0.68 |
| Dhamoon | 50/668 | 0.60 | 0.52 to 0.68 | 80/668 | 0.61 | 0.54 to 0.67 | 205/1,253 | 0.73 | 0.69 to 0.76 |
Cell entries are AUROCCs for a recurrent stroke by one year, all vascular events by one year, and the outcome as defined in development. Few patients were deleted due to missingness for prediction models (671 outpatients with 50 strokes in follow-up and 80 vascular events; and for all patients 1,257, 102 and 274 respectively). aOutpatients only; bone year follow-up was available for all patients in the ESS; cModel A was the clinical based model. AUROCC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; ESRS, ESSEN Stroke Risk Score; RRE-90, Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 days; SPI-II, Stroke Prognosis Instrument II.