Table 4. Parameter estimates of three models of population structure and migration in EC1.

Parameter	Population	Obs. data (95% CI)	Sim. Model 1 (95% CI)	Sim. Model 2 (95% CI)	Sim. Model 3 (95% CI)
π/bp ( × 10−3)	Pop. 1	2.3 (1.1–3.6)	1.9 (0.8–3.6)	2.2 (0.8–3.6)	2.1 (0–4.3)
	Pop. 2	3.3 (1.6–5)	2.5 (1.1–4.3)	2.4 (1.1–3.9)	2.5 (0.8–3.3)
	Pop. 3	1.4 (0.6–2.3)	1.1 (0–2.9)	2.1 (0.8–3.4)	1.8 (0–1.4)
S	Pop. 1	2.5 (1–3.9)	2.5 (1–4)	2.6 (1–4)	2.4 (0–5)
	Pop. 2	2.8 (1.4–4.1)	2.4 (1–4)	2.6 (1–4)	2.7 (1–5)
	Pop. 3	1.6 (0.6–2.5)	1.2 (0–3)	2.6 (1–4)	2.2 (0–5)
Tajima's D	Pop. 1	0.19 (−0.01–0.44)	0.53 (−0.69–1.46)	0.20 (−0.69–1.30)	0.18 (−0.69–1.03)
	Pop. 2	0.37 (0.08–0.65)	0.69 (−0.51–1.74)	0.34 (−0.51–1.34)	0.36 (−0.51–1.30)
	Pop. 3	−0.08 (−0.38–0.23)	0.24 (1.11–1.34)	−0.00 (−0.76–0.83)	−0.02 (−1.04–0.83)
Marginal density			1.69e−21	8.99e−39	2.51e−13
Bayes factor			M12>100	M21<1	M31>100
			M13<1	M31<1	M32>100

Abbreviations: π, average nucleotide diversity; ABC, approximate Bayesian computation; CI, confidence interval; EC1, Evolution Canyon 1; Obs., observed; S, average number of segregating sites; sim., simulated.

Estimates were obtained by ABC. Models differed only by the migration rate among populations. Accessions were assigned to one of the three populations with STRUCTURE. Bayes factors were calculated as the marginal density of one model divided by the other model. S and Tajima's D are calculated as averages per locus.