Table 1.
Logistic regression analysis predicting 5-year mortality
| |
|
Univariate logistic regression |
Multivariate |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR (IC 95% ) | p | R 2 (%) | AUC | AUC (*) | ||
|
Covariates of adjustment
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Age |
(Continuous) |
1.17(1.06,1.28) |
0.001 |
14.6 |
0.70(0.59,0.81) |
|
|
Sex |
Female |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
Male |
1.17(0.52,2.65) |
0.708 |
0.2 |
0.52(0.40,0.64) |
0.79(0.71,0.88) |
|
Cognitive |
No |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
|
Impairment |
Mild |
2.02(0.66,6.24) |
|
|
|
|
| |
Mod/severe |
7.58(2.10,27.4) |
0.007 |
15.3 |
0.69(0.59,0.79) |
|
|
Barthel |
4 |
Reference |
0.056 |
11.2 |
0.72(0.62,0.82) |
|
| 3 |
2.14(0.70,6.58) |
|||||
| 2 |
2.18(0.55,8.68) |
|||||
| 1 |
7.14(1.54,33.15) |
|||||
|
Comorbidity indices
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
ChI |
1 |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
2 |
1.92(0.66,5.61) |
0.144 |
7.0 |
0.64(0.53,0.75) |
0.81(0.73,0.89) |
| |
3 |
2.30(0.67,7.90) |
|
|
|
|
| |
4 |
4.03(1.06,15.31) |
|
|
|
|
|
DC |
1 |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
2 |
5.76(1.17,28.24) |
0.106 |
8.1 |
0.58(0.45,0.70) |
0.80(0.72,0.88) |
| |
3 |
2.38(0.84,6.75) |
|
|
|
|
| |
4 |
1.92(0.66,5.56) |
|
|
|
|
|
CIRS |
1 |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
2 |
1.23(0.40,3.78) |
0.601 |
2.4 |
0.54(0.42,0.66) |
0.80(0.71,0.88) |
| |
3 |
0.97(0.34,2.80) |
|
|
|
|
| |
4 |
2.25(0.60,8.46) |
|
|
|
|
|
ICED |
1 |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
2 |
0.70(0.21,2.34) |
0.344 |
4.5 |
0.56(0.45,0.67) |
0.79(0.71,0.87) |
| |
3 |
0.75(0.26,2.12) |
|
|
|
|
| |
4 |
2.17(0.58,8.20) |
|
|
|
|
|
GIC |
1 |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
2 |
0.50(0.15,1.67) |
0.012 |
16.1 |
0.66(0.56,0.76) |
0.79(0.71,0.88) |
| |
3 |
1.04(0.27,4.01) |
|
|
|
|
| |
4 |
4.62(0.96,22.09) |
|
|
|
|
|
Prognostic indices
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BISEP |
1 |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
2 |
1.41(0.52,3.85) |
0.010 |
17.2 |
0.73(0.63,0.82) |
0.81(0.73,0.89) |
| |
3 |
6.92(1.29,37.05) |
|
|
|
|
| |
4 |
10.0(1.91,52.47) |
|
|
|
|
|
PI |
1 |
Reference |
|
|
|
|
| |
2 |
3.10(0.83,11.66) |
0.005 |
20.9 |
0.72(0.62,0.83) |
0.80(0.71,0.88) |
| |
3 |
5.85(1.52,22.57) |
|
|
|
|
| 4 | 18.00(4.01,80.71) | |||||
BISEP: Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons; ChI: Charlson Index; CIRS: Cumulative Illness Rating Scale; DC: Disease Count; ICED: Index of Coexistent Disease; GIC: Geriatric Index of Comorbidity; PI: Prognostic Index *Quartile ranges do not aply to ICED and GIC, as these indices are predefined into 4 classes
(*) The multivariate AUC for the “covariates of adjustment” refers to the model including only age, sex, Barthel and cog impairment, whereas the multivariate AUC given for each index is the one obtained from the multivariate model including the formers and each one of the indices.