Figure 3.

Predicted changes in suitability for coral reef ecosystems under the A2 scenario for future change in aragonite saturation only; 2010 (a), 2040 (b) and 2070 (c). Histograms show predicted suitability values for the 1124 presence sites of the study grid (i.e., cells currently with reefs according to the ReefBase v2000 data). All environmental fields apart from Ω_Arag were kept constant at their present values (used in model training). Unlike the SST results (Fig. 2), changes in Ω_Arag do not give rise to extrapolation uncertainties by producing novel conditions. The figure shows BRT_OPT results (see figure S3.2 in Data S3 for MaxEnt_OPT projections).