Table 1.
Model Comparison
| Model E | Model F | Model U | Model M | Model S | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central smoking dose-response model | Two-stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) | Longitudinal multistage observation by histology | Multistage clonal expansion model by histology | Probabilistic by histology | TSCE |
| Central dose-response parameter calibration | NHS/HPFS,SEER,NLST, PLCO | NLST,PLCO;PLuSS CT,CARET | NHS/HPFS | SEER,NLST,PLCO | NHS/HPFS |
| Histological types | Adenocarcinoma, squamous, small cell (SCLC), other non-small cell (ONSCLC) | Adenocarcinoma, large-cell, squamous, BAC, ONSCLC, SCLC | Adenocarcinoma, ONSCLC, SCLC | Adenocarcinoma, BAC, large-cell, squamous, SCLC, and other | Adenocarcinoma, large-cell, squamous, SCLC |
| LC stages | Ia,Ib,II,IIIa,IIIb,IV | Ia1,Ia2,Ib,II,IIIa,IIIb,IV | Ia1,Ia2,Ib,II,IIIa,IIIb,IV | Ia1,Ia2,Ib,II,IIIa,IIIb,IV | early (I–II), advanced (III–IV) |
| Stage progression model | Markov state-transition by histology | Based on tumor size and presence of metastasis | Markov state- transition by histology and gender; rates proportional to tumor size | Based on tumor volume and metastatic burden | Based on tumor volume and metastatic burden |
| LC survival | Based on SEER 17 2004–2008 survival | Based on NLST and PLCO | By gender, histology, stage and age at dx. Based on SEER 17 2004–2008 survival | Calibrated to SEER 17 1973–2008 survival | Based on SEER 17 1988–2003 survival |
| OCMortality | U.S. rates(NCI Smoking History Generator) | As observed in NLST and PLCO | Gompertz-model of OCM calibrated to each trial | Cox-model of OCM calibrated to each trial | Gompertz model of OCM based on NLST |
| Calibration method | Nelder-Mead optimization of likelihood-based deviance criterion | Maximum likelihood approach | MCMC and Nelder-Mead simplex | Simulated annealing based on weighted- sum total deviance | Nelder-Mead simplex for Natural History Model calibration to SEER, and multi- dimensional grid search for calibration to trials |
| Data sources used for calibration | NLST;PLCO;SEER 17 2004–2008 incidence by age, stage, histology; NHS/HPFS | NLST;PLCO; originally fitted to PLuSS CT, CARET | NLST;NHS/HPFS LC incidence by histology;SEER LC survival by gender, age, histology and stage | NLST;SEER 1990–2000 incidence by age, stage, histology; survival by stage; Mayo CT;LSS | NLST;PLCO;NHS/HPFS LC incidence, SEER 1988–2003 survival by histology and gender |
| Number of parameters estimated by calibration | 110 | 90 | 50 | 53 | 13 in natural history, 8 for calibration |
| Screening sensitivity model | By stage and histology | By size (number of cells), histology and gender | By size (number of cells), histology and gender | By size (mm) and location in lung (central/peripherial) | By size (mm) and histology |
| Screening effectiveness mechanism | Cure model | Combination cure model and stage-shift | Stage-shift model, with adjustments for age | Not stage-shift model | Not stage-shift model |
| Positive Nodule Follow-up algorithm | Implicit | Implicit based on NLST follow-up rates | Implicit based on NLST follow-up rates | Explicit. Based on size at diagnosis and smoking history. LCs diagnosed on follow-up are categorized as ‘non-screen detected’ | Explicit |