Table 5.

Transition to the first separation after the first child was born, results from a piecewise linear model

	Model 0	Model 1a	Model 2a	Model 3a	Model 4a		Model 5a
	Hazard eβ	Hazard eβ	Hazard eβ	Hazard eβ	Probit β	Hazard eβ	Probit β	Hazard eβ
Baseline (β)
Intercept	−6.73***	−6.43***	−4.11**	−4.18**	5.4001***	−3.8878**	7.0179***	−3.6483*
1st child 0–1 years (slope)	0.032***	0.032***	0.030***	0.030***		0.0400***		0.0461***
1st child 2–5 yrs (slope)	−0.002	−0.002	−0.004	−0.004		0.0020		0.0058
1st child 6 years and older (slope)	−0.000	−0.000	−0.004	−0.004*		−0.0025		−0.001
Birth cohorts
(Ref = 1971–1973)
1981–1983	2.10***	1.77***	1.15	1.19	0.22**	0.90	0.24**	0.90
Region
(Ref = Eastern Germany)
Western Germany	0.85	1.06	1.02	1.50**	−0.75***	1.71***	−1.01***	1.64**
Union form at 1st childbirth
(Ref = Cohabiting)
Married		0.49***	0.61***	0.64***		0.67***		0.91
Educational level
(Ref = Middle)
Low			1.08	1.12	0.23**	1.06	0.29**	1.14
High			0.79	0.81	0.01	0.87	0.07	0.88
Missing information			2.52*	2.62*	1.26	2.99**	1.26	2.62*
Union duration prior to 1st childbirth			0.90***	0.90***	−0.04***	0.90***	−0.05***	0.88***
Age at 1st childbirth			0.93	0.91	−0.38***	0.92	−0.48***	0.87
Age at 1st childbirth2			1.00	1.00	0.01***	1.00	0.01***	1.00
Religious affiliation
(Ref = Protestant)
Catholic				0.90	−0.10	0.94	−0.10	0.87
No church member				1.59***	0.19**	1.63***	0.27**	1.73***
Other affiliation				0.63	−0.74***	0.65	−0.96***	0.55*
Partnership order					0.10***	0.97	0.12***	0.99
Living together with both parents until 18th birthday
(Ref = Yes)
No					0.14	1.34**	0.21**	1.48***
Missing information					0.11	0.98	0.19*	1.03
Family formed
(ref = After 7/1998)
Prior to 7/1998					−0.36***	0.74	−0.53***	0.71
Economic activity after 1st childbirth
(Ref = Full-time employed)
Non-employed				0.68***		0.83		0.91
Part-time employed				0.73*		0.79		0.81
Missing information				0.86		1.02		1.09
Economic activity 9 months prior to 1st childbirth
(Ref = Full-time employed)
Non-employed					0.18		0.24
Part-time employed					0.06		0.13
Missing information					0.05		0.09
Sex of first child
(Ref = Male)
Female						0.96		0.98
Health status of first child
(Ref = Not handicapped)
Handicapped						1.03		0.99
Season of birth of child
(Ref = Winter)
Non-winter						0.85		0.83
Number of siblings
(Ref = No Siblings)
1 sibling					0.02		0.06
2 or more siblings					−0.04		−0.05
Covariance ${\mathit{\sigma }}_{\mathit{\epsilon }\mathit{\delta }}$ (β)							0.48***

Sources pairfam/DemoDiff (2008–2011), own estimates

Significance levels *** p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; * p < 0.10