Table 2.
Prediction models of health outcomes
| Variable | Hazard ratio (95 % CI) | Odds ratio (95 % CI) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality at 9 years | Increase in physical limitation after 4 years | Depression at 4 years (depressed at baseline is excluded) | Drug use (≥4) at 4 years | |||||
| M1 | M2 | M1 | M2 | M1 | M2 | M1 | M2 | |
| Syndromesa | ||||||||
| None | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| A. Multi-morbidityb alone | 1.20 (0.89, 1.60) | 1.20 (0.89, 1.62) | 1.41 (1.11, 1.78) | 1.46 (1.15, 1.86) | 1.09 (0.56, 2.11) | 1.23 (0.59, 2.55) | 5.72 (3.53, 9.26) | 5.58 (3.44, 9.05) |
| B. Dependencyc alone | 1.22 (0.44, 3.35) | 1.65 (0.60, 4.56) | 0.75 (0.35, 1.62) | 0.80 (0.33, 1.98) | – | – | 0.76 (0.10, 5.85) | 0.92 (0.12, 7.13) |
| C. Frailty (CHS)d alone | 1.14 (0.83, 1.58) | 1.16 (0.83, 1.61) | 1.32 (1.01, 1.73) | 1.33 (1.01, 1.76) | 1.43 (0.69, 2.96) | 1.74 (0.79, 3.83) | 1.36 (0.72, 2.56) | 1.30 (0.68, 2.48) |
| A + B | 0.78 (0.43, 1.38) | 0.90 (0.50, 1.60) | 1.61 (1.16, 2.25) | 1.59 (1.11, 2.27) | 1.74 (0.72, 4.20) | 2.30 (0.91, 5.80) | 11.07 (6.21, 19.74) | 12.01 (6.69, 21.56) |
| A + C | 1.55 (1.18, 2.04) | 1.55 (1.17, 2.06) | 1.86 (1.48, 2.34) | 1.89 (1.50, 2.39) | 1.55 (0.83, 2.90) | 1.78 (0.89, 3.57) | 9.17 (5.68, 14.79) | 8.95 (5.54, 14.46) |
| B + C | 2.42 (1.57, 3.73) | 2.21 (1.37, 3.56) | 2.22 (1.51, 3.28) | 2.27 (1.50, 3.44) | 2.32 (0.82, 6.52) | 2.26 (0.62, 8.23) | 1.72 (0.57, 5.19) | 2.00 (0.66, 6.08) |
| A + B + C | 2.43 (1.78, 3.30) | 2.45 (1.78, 3.37) | 1.85 (1.41, 2.41) | 1.79 (1.35, 2.37) | 2.41 (1.19, 4.90) | 3.11 (1.43, 6.76) | 9.78 (5.72, 16.72) | 9.97 (5.79, 17.16) |
| Male | 2.37 (2.02, 2.80) | 2.35 (1.98, 2.79) | 0.62 (0.55, 0.71) | 0.62 (0.54, 0.70) | 0.64 (0.44, 0.93) | 0.65 (0.44, 0.97) | 1.42 (1.17, 1.74) | 1.38 (1.13, 1.70) |
| Age (per 1 year increase) | 1.10 (1.09, 1.11) | 1.10 (1.08, 1.11) | 1.01 (1.001, 1.03) | 1.01 (1.001, 1.03) | 1.02 (0.98, 1.05) | 1.00 (0.96, 1.04) | 0.98 (0.96, 1.01) | 0.98 (0.96, 1.01) |
| SES ladderd | ||||||||
| 6–10 (high) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4–5 | 0.94 (0.77, 1.15) | 1.16 (0.98, 1.37) | 1.85 (1.02, 3.36) | 0.89 (0.69, 1.14) | ||||
| 1–3 (low) | 1.22 (0.995, 1.50) | 1.20 (1.01, 1.44) | 3.39 (1.87, 6.18) | 0.97 (0.74, 1.27) | ||||
| AUCH = 0.708 | AUCH = 0.703 | AUCH = 0.615 | AUCH = 0.619 | AUCH = 0.642 | AUCH = 0.670 | AUC = 0.691 | AUC = 0.694 | |
| IDI = 0.003* | IDI = 0.002* | IDI = 0.009* | IDI = 0.0003 | |||||
| NRI = 0.017 | NRI = 0.002 | NRI = 0.135* | NRI = 0.029* | |||||
SES socioeconomic status, M1 model with syndromes, male gender, and age, M2 model with syndromes, male, age, gender, and SES ladder, AUC H area under curve for proportional hazards regression by Harrell C statistic, AUC area under curve for logistic regression, IDI integrated discrimination improvement, comparing M2 with M1, NRI net reclassification improvement, comparing M2 with M1
*p < 0.05
aThere are eight categories with different combinations of A, B, and C, each participant belonging to only one category
bNo. of diseases ≥2
cAny difficulty with meals, housework, or shopping
dCardiovascular Health Scale (CHS) pre-frail/frail