Table 2.
Scenario results produced by the proposed model, with 95% confidence intervals (CI)
| Third-line treatment-eligible GIST* population prevalence per 100000 persons (95% CI) | Probability that third-line treatment-eligible GIST population is below 2 per 100000 persons | Absolute number third-line treatment-eligible GIST population (95% CI) | Total GIST population prevalence per 100000 persons (95% CI) | Absolute number total GIST population (95% CI) | Absolute number of GIST patients on imatinib (95% CI) | Absolute number of GIST patients on sunitinib (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Base-case Scenario GIST Incidence: 1.053/100000 person-years (p-y) Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival: 0.77 yrs |
0.96 (0.69 – 1.29) |
99.9% |
598 (432 – 804) |
15.04 (11.2 – 19.8) |
9365 (6953 – 12325) |
1422 (838 – 2368) |
599 (435 – 789) |
|
Alternative Scenario 1 GIST Incidence: 1.5/100000 p-y Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival: 0.77 yrs |
1.37 (1.06 – 1.73) |
99.6% |
851 (662 – 1080) |
21.9 (13.9 – 31.7) |
13364 (10697 – 16383) |
2020 (1,252 – 3,258) |
855 (670 – 1067) |
|
Alternative Scenario 2 GIST Incidence: 1.053/100000 p-y Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival: 1.5 yrs |
1.53 (1.00 – 2.29) |
90.6% |
954 (622 – 1428) |
15.6 (11.6 – 20.3) |
9699 (7227 – 12633) |
1410 (832 – 2338) |
602 (437 – 802) |
| Alternative Scenario 3 GIST Incidence: 1.5/100000 p-y Third-line treatment-eligible GIST survival 1.5 yrs | 2.18 (1.50 – 3.18) | 37.9% | 1357 (933 – 1984) | 22.3 (17.7 – 27.4) | 13886 (1068 – 17069) | 2020 (1259 – 3282) | 854 (674 – 1061) |
*GIST = gastrointestinal stromal tumour.