Table 5.
Area under the curve and cut points for anthropometric measurements of general and central obesity to predict increased risk of CVD using risk score models at different thresholds for various levels of sensitivity and specificity by ethnicity
| AUC | Sensitivity=70% | Sensitivity=80% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| General CVD 10-year predicted risk for CVD incidence and death (threshold=10%) | |||
| Australia | |||
| BMI | 0.691 (0.666 to 0.716) | 24.2 (60.1%) | 23.0 (46.1%) |
| WC | 0.750 (0.727 to 0.772) | 77.3 (69.6%) | 74.3 (57.9%) |
| WHR | 0.759 (0.736 to 0.783) | 0.77 (70.1%) | 0.75 (58.0%) |
| UK and Ireland | |||
| BMI | 0.655 (0.584 to 0.726) | 23.7 (50.6%) | 22.8 (41.2%) |
| WC | 0.676 (0.611 to 0.741) | 75.3 (58.5%) | 73.3 (51.2%) |
| WHR | 0.729 (0.671 to 0.787) | 0.77 (65.6%) | 0.75 (52.4%) |
| Northern Europe | |||
| BMI | 0.770 (0.695 to 0.845) | 25.8 (71.4%) | 24.4 (58.7%) |
| WC | 0.761 (0.682 to 0.840) | 77.8 (66.7%) | 75.3 (57.1%) |
| WHR | 0.730 (0.642 to 0.817) | 0.77 (59.5%) | 0.75 (50.8%) |
| Southern Europe | |||
| BMI | 0.618 (0.536 to 0.699) | 26.5 (52.8%) | 25.5 (44.9%) |
| WC | 0.686 (0.604 to 0.768) | 81.8 (62.4%) | 78.8 (53.4%) |
| WHR | 0.702 (0.619 to 0.785) | 0.80 (61.8%) | 0.79 (57.9%) |
| Asia | |||
| BMI | 0.564 (0.411 to 0.717) | 21.9 (38.2%) | 21.8 (37.6%) |
| WC | 0.651 (0.524 to 0.778) | 73.3 (60.0%) | 71.8 (52.4%) |
| WHR | 0.614 (0.490 to 0.739) | 0.76 (56.5%) | 0.76 (54.7%) |
| General CVD 10-year predicted risk for CVD incidence and death (threshold=20%) | |||
| Australia | |||
| BMI | 0.725 (0.677 to 0.772) | 25.5 (68.8%) | 24.3 (58.1%) |
| WC | 0.782 (0.743 to 0.821) | 79.8 (72.3%) | 77.8 (66.4%) |
| WHR | 0.784 (0.745 to 0.823) | 0.79 (76.3%) | 0.77 (65.7%) |
| UK and Ireland | |||
| BMI | 0.550 (0.414 to 0.685) | 23.0 (40.2%) | 21.7 (25.4%) |
| WC | 0.589 (0.472 to 0.706) | 74.8 (52.2%) | 73.8 (48.3%) |
| WHR | 0.682 (0.572 to 0.791) | 0.77 (61.3%) | 0.75 (47.3%) |
| Northern Europe | |||
| BMI | 0.818 (0.727 to 0.908) | 28.7 (82.4%) | 26.3 (67.3%) |
| WC | 0.861 (0.785 to 0.936) | 85.3 (81.1%) | 84.3 (79.2%) |
| WHR | 0.866 (0.784 to 0.947) | 0.84 (86.8%) | 0.83 (84.9%) |
| Southern Europe | |||
| BMI | 0.578 (0.437 to 0.719) | 26.8 (51.9%) | 26.7 (50.9%) |
| WC | 0.711 (0.562 to 0.859) | 84.8 (69.6%) | 84.8 (69.6%) |
| WHR | 0.725 (0.553 to 0.897) | 0.80 (62.1%) | 0.79 (55.6%) |
| Asia | |||
| BMI | 0.555 (0.303 to 0.807) | 25.4 (73.1%) | 21.9 (37.9%) |
| WC | 0.630 (0.466 to 0.795) | 78.3 (73.6%) | 71.8 (50.5%) |
| WHR | 0.440 (0.306 to 0.573) | 0.76 (52.2%) | 0.74 (35.7%) |
| Framingham 10-year predicted risk for CVD incidence (threshold=20%) | |||
| Australia | |||
| BMI | 0.682 (0.657 to 0.707) | 24.0 (57.9%) | 22.9 (43.8%) |
| WC | 0.745 (0.723 to 0.768) | 76.8 (67.5%) | 73.8 (55.8%) |
| WHR | 0.759 (0.736 to 0.781) | 0.77 (69.7%) | 0.75 (58.1%) |
| UK and Ireland | |||
| BMI | 0.656 (0.586 to 0.726) | 23.7 (50.6%) | 22.5 (37.5%) |
| WC | 0.682 (0.620 to 0.745) | 75.3 (58.6%) | 73.3 (51.8%) |
| WHR | 0.735 (0.679 to 0.791) | 0.77 (65.8%) | 0.75 (54.2%) |
| Northern Europe | |||
| BMI | 0.783 (0.710 to 0.856) | 26.3 (75.2%) | 24.9 (65.1%) |
| WC | 0.770 (0.691 to 0.850) | 78.8 (71.3%) | 76.3 (60.5%) |
| WHR | 0.742 (0.652 to 0.832) | 0.77 (62.8%) | 0.75 (51.2%) |
| Southern Europe | |||
| BMI | 0.597 (0.514 to 0.680) | 25.8 (47.1%) | 25.1 (40.1%) |
| WC | 0.680 (0.601 to 0.760) | 80.8 (57.6%) | 78.3 (53.5%) |
| WHR | 0.711 (0.633 to 0.789) | 0.79 (61.6%) | 0.78 (51.7%) |
| Asia | |||
| BMI | 0.647 (0.524 to 0.770) | 23.5 (55.1%) | 21.9 (39.5%) |
| WC | 0.688 (0.586 to 0.790) | 73.3 (60.5%) | 71.8 (53.3%) |
| WHR | 0.645 (0.530 to 0.759) | 0.76 (56.9%) | 0.75 (44.3%) |
AUC, area under the curve; BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; WHR, waist-to-hip ratio.