Table 4.
Convolution Model Parameter Estimates
| Parameter | Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| NSCLC Excluding BAC | BAC | |
| Sojourn time,a mean, y | 3.6 (3.0–4.3) | 32.1 (17.3–270.7) |
| Proportion becoming clinical,b % | ||
| Within 1 y | 24.1 (21–29) | 3.1 (0.4–6) |
| Within 2 y | 42.4 (37–49) | 6.0 (1–11) |
| Within 5 y | 74.8 (69–81) | 14.4 (2–25) |
| Within 10 y | 93.7 (90–97) | 26.8 (4–44) |
| Sensitivity, % | ||
| LDCT | 83 (72–94) | 38 (7–62) |
| CXR | 33 (26–42) | 4 (1–9) |
Abbreviations: BAC, bronchioloalveolar cell carcinoma; CXR, chest radiography; LDCT, low-dose computed tomography; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer.
a
Reciprocal of transition to clinical phase rate parameter; equals mean sojourn time if no competing mortality.
b
Percentage of cases becoming clinical in a given time interval from the start of the preclinical phase (under no screening).