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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Jun 1.
Published in final edited form as: Prim Care. 2014 Mar 27;41(2):371–397. doi: 10.1016/j.pop.2014.02.010

Table 1.

Commonly used externally validated risk prediction models12

Model Outcome Number of
external
evaluations		 Source Population(s) Online Tool
Pooled
Cohort
Equations33 		Non-fatal MI,
CHD death,
fatal and non-
fatal stroke		 Atherosclerosis Risk in
Communities Study

  • - United States

  • - Age 45-64 years

  • - Men and women

  • - Whites and African Americans34


Cardiovascular Health
Study

  • - United States

  • - Age 65 years and older

  • - Men and women35


Coronary Artery Risk
Development in Young
Adults Study

  • - United States

  • - Age 18-30 years

  • - Men and women

  • - White and African American36


Framingham Heart Study

  • - United States

  • - Age 30-62 years

  • - 55% female

  • - Primarily white


Framingham Offspring
Study

  • - United States

  • - Age <10-70 years

  • - 52% female

  • - primarily white37

 http://my.americanheart.org/professional/StatementsGuidelines/PreventionGuidelines/Prevention-Guidelines_UCM_457698_SubHomePage.jsp
1991
Framing-
ham Risk
Score
Model		 CVD 26 Framingham Heart
Study

  • - United States

  • - Age 30-62 years

  • - 55% female

  • - Primarily white


Framingham Offspring
Study

  • - United States

  • - Age <10-70 years

  • - 52% female

  • - primarily white37
1998
Framing-
ham Risk
Score
Model		 Total CHD (ie,
angina, MI,
sudden CHD
death, cardiac
procedure)		 24 Framingham Heart
Study, Framingham
Offspring Study 38

  • - United States

  • - Age 30-74 years

  • - 53% female

  • - Primarily white37

 http://reference.medscape.com/calculator/framingham-coronaryrisk-ldl
Framing-
ham Risk
Score Adult
Treatment
Panel III		 Hard CHD (ie,
sudden CHD
death or MI)		 16 Framingham Heart
Study

  • - United States

  • - Age 30-62 years

  • - 55% female

  • - Primarily white


Framingham Offspring
Study

  • - United States

  • - Age <10-70 years

  • - 52% female

  • - Primarily white37


Excludes people with
diabetes 		http://cvdrisk.nhlbi.nih.gov/calculator.asp
PROCAM Hard CHD (ie,
sudden CHD
death or MI)		 11 PROCAM 39

  • - Germany

  • - Age 35-65

  • - White


excludes women 		http://www.chdtaskforce.de/procam_interactive.html
SCORE CVD mortality 11 SCORE 40

  • - Finland, Russia, Norway, UK, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Spain

  • - Age 19-80

  • - Pooled dataset from cohort studies in 12 European countries; Most of the cohorts were populationbased; Some occupational cohorts were included to increase representation from lower risk areas

 Access from the
European Society
of Cardiology

CHD: coronary heart disease

CVD: cardiovascular disease

MI: myocardial infarction

PROCAM: Prospective Cardiovascular Münster

SCORE: Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation