Table 3.
Total cost of vaccination strategies for moderate pandemics (R = 1.9 and CFR = 0.25%) and severe pandemics (R = 2.7 and CFR = 1.5%)
| |
Moderate pandemics (R = 1.9 and CFR = 0.25%) |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenarios | SD and AV intervention |
Total cost ($) per 10,000 population |
|
| Pre-emptive vaccination | Reactive vaccination | ||
|
Scenario 1: no pandemic |
none |
$2,430,000 |
$0 |
| |
Pre-emptive + Reactive vaccination |
Reactive vaccination |
|
|
Scenario 2: pandemic with virus which does not match pre-emptive vaccine i.e. vaccine efficacy of 0% |
none |
$6,510,000 |
$4,080,000 |
| 8 weeks SD + AV |
$7,510,000 |
$5,080,000 |
|
| Sustained SD + AV |
$10,460,000 |
$8,030,000 |
|
| Unmitigated pandemic cost (no intervention) |
$3,200,000 |
||
| |
Pre-emptive vaccination |
Reactive vaccination |
|
|
Scenario 3: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 30% |
none |
$4,250,000 |
$4,080,000 |
| 8 weeks SD + AV |
$5,020,000 |
$5,080,000 |
|
| Sustained SD + AV |
$6,820,000 |
$8,030,000 |
|
| Unmitigated pandemic cost (no intervention) |
$3,200,000 |
||
| |
Pre-emptive Vaccination |
Reactive vaccination |
|
|
Scenario 4: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 75% |
none |
$3,630,000 |
$4,080,000 |
| 8 weeks SD + AV |
$4,800,000 |
$5,080,000 |
|
| Sustained SD + AV |
$6,310,000 |
$8,030,000 |
|
| Unmitigated pandemic cost (no intervention) |
$3,200,000 |
||
| |
Extreme pandemics (R = 2.7 and CFR = 1.5%) |
||
|
Scenarios |
SD and AV intervention |
Total cost ($) per 10,000 population |
|
|
Pre-emptive vaccination |
Reactive vaccination |
||
|
Scenario 1: no pandemic |
none |
$2,430,000 |
$0 |
| |
Pre-emptive + Reactive vaccination |
Reactive vaccination |
|
|
Scenario 2: pandemic with virus which does not match pre-emptive vaccine i.e. vaccine efficacy of 0% |
none |
$17,480,000 |
$15,050,000 |
| 8 weeks SD + AV |
$15,000,000 |
$12,570,000 |
|
| Sustained SD + AV |
$13,430,000 |
$11,000,000 |
|
| Unmitigated pandemic cost (no intervention) |
$14,180,000 |
||
| |
Pre-emptive vaccination |
Reactive vaccination |
|
|
Scenario 3: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 30% |
none |
$10,190,000 |
$15,050,000 |
| 8 weeks SD + AV |
$8,420,000 |
$12,570,000 |
|
| Sustained SD + AV |
$8,810,000 |
$11,000,000 |
|
| Unmitigated pandemic cost (no intervention) |
$14,180,000 |
||
| |
Pre-emptive vaccination |
Reactive vaccination |
|
|
Scenario 4: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 75% |
none |
$3,760,000 |
$15,050,000 |
| 8 weeks SD + AV |
$5,100,000 |
$12,570,000 |
|
| Sustained SD + AV |
$6,970,000 |
$11,000,000 |
|
| Unmitigated pandemic cost (no intervention) | $14,180,000 | ||