Table 4.

Predicting new disrupted luminal surface (DLS) or intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH) using a single baseline predictor: CAS, stenosis or a plaque burden measure (N=73 subjects without DLS or IPH at baseline).

	Outcome
	DLS		IPH		DLS or IPH
	AUC (95% CI)	p*	AUC (95% CI)	p*	AUC (95% CI)	p*
CAS	0.96 (0.92, 1.00)	<0.001	0.68 (0.42, 0.94)	0.142	0.86 (0.71, 1.00)	<0.001
Stenosis	0.65 (0.43, 0.88)	0.183	0.74 (0.52, 096)	0.110	0.69 (0.50, 0.89)	0.063
Wall volume	0.58 (0.36, 0.81)	0.465	0.74 (0.43, 1.00)	0.104	0.59 (0.37, 0.81)	0.383
Mean NWI	0.84 (0.67, 1.00)	0.003	0.78 (0.60, 0.95)	0.065	0.84 (0.70, 0.99)	0.001
Max WT	0.75 (0.60, 0.90)	0.030	0.78 (0.59, 0.97)	0.062	0.76 (0.62, 0.90)	0.013

AUC=area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, CI=confidence interval, NWI=normalized wall index, WT=wall thickness.

^*Test for AUC > 0.5.

P-values were computed using an exact method, so are more reliable than the confidence intervals, which were computed using an approximation.