Table 4.
Root-mean-squared-errors (RMSEs) for e0, 1q0, 45 q15, and 20q60 by sex, various model life table methods, Human Mortality Database life tables (n = 719)
| Female | Male | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| e0 | 1q0 | 45q15 | 20q60 | e0 | 1q0 | 45q15 | 20q60 | |
| Given 5q0 only: | ||||||||
| Log-linear (bi-weight) | 1.64 | 0.011 | 0.032 | 0.046 | 2.62 | 0.012 | 0.064 | 0.057 |
| Log-linear (OLS) | 1.67 | 0.010 | 0.033 | 0.047 | 2.60 | 0.011 | 0.062 | 0.057 |
| Log-quadratic (bi-weight) | 1.62 | 0.010 | 0.032 | 0.045 | 2.55 | 0.011 | 0.062 | 0.056 |
| Log-quadratic (OLS) | 1.62 | 0.010 | 0.032 | 0.045 | 2.52 | 0.011 | 0.060 | 0.056 |
| Modified logit (re-est.) | 1.66 | 0.010 | 0.032 | 0.048 | 2.47 | 0.011 | 0.060 | 0.052 |
| Modified logit (orig.) | 1.85 | 0.015 | 0.034 | 0.051 | 2.56 | 0.019 | 0.067 | 0.053 |
| Coale-Demeny West Model | 2.73 | 0.010 | 0.042 | 0.062 | 4.09 | 0.011 | 0.086 | 0.088 |
| UN General Model | 4.50 | 0.011 | 0.070 | 0.110 | 5.67 | 0.010 | 0.104 | 0.139 |
|
| ||||||||
| Given 5q0 and 45q15: | ||||||||
| Log-linear (bi-weight) | 0.83 | 0.011 | 0 | 0.047 | 0.69 | 0.012 | 0 | 0.045 |
| Log-linear (OLS) | 0.78 | 0.010 | 0 | 0.046 | 0.62 | 0.011 | 0 | 0.045 |
| Log-quadratic (bi-weight) | 0.70 | 0.010 | 0 | 0.042 | 0.59 | 0.011 | 0 | 0.041 |
| Log-quadratic (OLS) | 0.70 | 0.010 | 0 | 0.042 | 0.57 | 0.011 | 0 | 0.041 |
| Modified logit (re-est.) | 0.69 | 0.010 | 0 | 0.042 | 0.61 | 0.011 | 0 | 0.043 |
| Modified logit (orig.) | 0.88 | 0.014 | 0 | 0.045 | 0.99 | 0.020 | 0 | 0.044 |
|
| ||||||||
| Best family given 5q0: | ||||||||
| Log-quadratic (5 families) | 0.94 | 0.010 | 0.013 | 0.042 | 1.18 | 0.011 | 0.027 | 0.044 |
| Coale-Demeny (4 families) | 2.45 | 0.010 | 0.026 | 0.061 | 3.90 | 0.014 | 0.077 | 0.084 |
| UN tables (5 families) | 3.26 | 0.013 | 0.030 | 0.084 | 3.48 | 0.011 | 0.066 | 0.080 |
| C-D or UN (9 families) | 2.41 | 0.011 | 0.023 | 0.062 | 3.39 | 0.013 | 0.064 | 0.077 |
|
| ||||||||
| Best family given 45q15: | ||||||||
| Log-quadratic (5 families) | 0.99 | 0.013 | 0 | 0.041 | 1.61 | 0.017 | 0 | 0.042 |
| Coale-Demeny (4 families) | 1.44 | 0.014 | 0 | 0.052 | 3.12 | 0.032 | 0 | 0.051 |
| UN tables (5 families) | 1.37 | 0.016 | 0 | 0.047 | 1.92 | 0.018 | 0 | 0.062 |
| C-D or UN (9 families) | 1.37 | 0.013 | 0 | 0.053 | 1.79 | 0.019 | 0 | 0.062 |
- For these comparisons, the log-quadratic model was estimated using either ordinary least squares (OLS) or weighted least squares using a bi-square weight function of residuals: the bi-weight method. See Appendix for more explanation.
- Estimation errors for the log-quadratic model in the two sets of “best family” comparisons were derived using the model as estimated by the bi-weight method.
Source: As for Table 3