Table 3.
Rate ratios and excess CFP calls expected for hypothetical scenarios compared with 2001–2011 baseline.
| Hypothetical scenario | Rate ratio ± SE (95% CI) | Extra CFP calls (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Increase in 1 storm/month | 1.11 ± 0.06 (1, 1.23) | 11.3 (0.4, 23.4) |
| Increase in 1°C for 1 month | 1.62 ± 0.27 (1.17, 2.24) | 61.9 (16.7, 124.5) |
| Increase in 1°C for 1 month and 1 storm/month | 1.8 ± 0.31 (1.28, 2.53) | 80.1 (28.3, 153) |
| Increase in storm frequency of 10% | 1.02 ± 0.01 (1, 1.03) | 1.6 (0.1, 3.1) |
| Increase in storm frequency of 25% | 1.04 ± 0.02 (1, 1.08) | 4 (0.1, 8) |
| Increase in maximum August SST 2.5°C | 3.33 ± 1.39 (1.47, 7.53) | 233.3 (47.2, 654.4) |
| Increase in maximum August SST 3.5°C | 5.38 ± 3.14 (1.72, 16.89) | 439.3 (71.8, 1592) |
| Increase in maximum August SST 2.5°C and increase in storm frequency of 10% | 3.38 ± 1.41 (1.49, 7.65) | 238.5 (49.5, 665.9) |
| Increase in maximum August SST 3.5°C and increase in storm frequency of 25% | 5.6 ± 3.26 (1.79, 17.55) | 460.7 (78.7, 1658) |
| This table applies the final multivariate model to several possible weather scenarios based on current climate prediction models for the Caribbean region. | ||