Fig. 3.

Annual probability of a widespread melt event over the GIS surface from 2015 to 2100 examined over four end-of-century scenarios. In our most conservative projection (2 °C rise in temperature with no change in the frequency of forest fires; blue dotted line), the annual probability of widespread melt should reach 0.17 by the year 2100. In our least conservative projection (9 °C rise in temperature with a twofold increase forest fire frequency per 1 °C increase; red solid line), the annual probability of widespread melt should reach 0.94 by the year 2100.