Figure 1.

Graphical respesentation of a six-state parameter estimation model and a 10-state overdiagnosis model. This figure shows states included in the parameter estimation model, a six-state Markov model of breast cancer progression for estimating screening parameters including screening test sensitivity and mean sojourn time, and the overdiagnosis model, an extended 10-state model aimed at estimating the extent of overdiagnosis. Dotted states are those added in the extension from the former to the latter model. The screen-detected in situ state groups two distinct states: screen-detected progressive and non-progressive in situ.