TABLE 4—
Simulation Model Projections of Adult Obesity Prevalence in 2020 by Subgroup and Changes in Energy Intake and Physical Activity
| 2020 Obesity Prevalence |
||||||
| Variable | 2010 Obesity Prevalence, Mean % (95% CI) | No Change in Calorie Intake or Physical Activity, Mean % (95% CI) | Cut Daily Calorie Consumption by 8.5%,a Mean (95% CI) % | Increase Daily Physical Activity by 7.5%,b Mean % (95% CI) | Cut Daily Consumption by 50 kcal, Mean % (95% CI) | Add 15 min Daily Exercise, Mean % (95% CI) |
| Age, y | ||||||
| 20–39 | 33.2 (30.8, 35.5) | 26.9 (25.1, 28.7) | 18.8 (17.4, 20.3) | 17.7 (16.3, 19.1) | 24.6 (22.9, 26.3) | 22.6 (21.0, 24.2) |
| 40–59 | 36.8 (34.2, 39.4) | 38.5 (36.1, 40.9) | 25.9 (24.1, 27.8) | 24.6 (22.8, 26.4) | 35.4 (33.1, 37.7) | 31.5 (29.4, 33.7) |
| ≥ 60 | 40.5 (37.8, 43.2) | 43.8 (41.6, 46.0) | 32.2 (30.4, 33.9) | 29.3 (27.7, 30.9) | 39.7 (37.6, 41.7) | 35.6 (33.7, 37.5) |
| Gender | ||||||
| Male | 36.0 (33.8, 38.2) | 34.4 (27.9, 40.8) | 31.1 (24.7, 37.6) | 30.8 (24.5, 37.1) | 33.6 (27.1, 40.1) | 32.9 (26.5, 39.4) |
| Female | 36.7 (34.7, 38.7) | 34.3 (28.5, 40.0) | 30.0 (24.4, 35.5) | 30.2 (24.7, 35.8) | 33.0 (27.3, 38.7) | 31.9 (26.3, 37.5) |
| Race/ethnicity | ||||||
| Non-Hispanic White | 35.4 (33.4, 37.4) | 33.3 (27.5, 39.1) | 29.3 (23.7, 34.8) | 29.0 (23.5, 34.5) | 32.2 (26.4, 37.9) | 31.4 (25.7, 37.0) |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 50.2 (47.1, 53.3) | 49.1 (42.8, 55.4) | 46.4 (40.2, 52.6) | 45.2 (39.2, 51.2) | 48.7 (42.3, 55.0) | 47.8 (41.6, 54.0) |
| Mexican American | 40.1 (36.9, 43.3) | 39.3 (33.1, 45.5) | 36.6 (30.6, 42.6) | 35.8 (29.9, 41.8) | 38.4 (32.3, 44.6) | 38.0 (31.9, 44.0) |
| Incomec | ||||||
| Low | 38.5 (35.3, 41.7) | 38.2 (31.6, 44.8) | 35.5 (29.2, 41.8) | 34.6 (28.2, 41.0) | 37.2 (30.6, 43.7) | 36.6 (30.0, 43.1) |
| Middle | 38.4 (36.0, 40.9) | 35.9 (30.0, 41.9) | 33.1 (27.2, 39.0) | 32.3 (26.4, 38.1) | 35.2 (29.1, 41.2) | 34.4 (28.5, 40.3) |
| High | 34.6 (32.4, 36.8) | 32.5 (26.9, 38.1) | 28.7 (23.3, 34.1) | 28.1 (22.8, 33.5) | 31.4 (25.9, 36.8) | 30.3 (24.9, 35.7) |
| All adults aged ≥ 20 y | 36.4 (34.2, 38.5) | 34.3 (32.3, 36.3) | 30.5 (28.8, 32.3) | 30.5 (28.7, 32.3) | 33.3 (31.4, 35.2) | 32.4 (30.6, 34.3) |
Note. CI = confidence interval. Only statistically significant trends at the P < .05 level (2 sided) were incorporated into the model.
a
Average of −166 kcal/person.
b
Average of 29 min/person.
c
Categorized by poverty income ratio into those living in households with a poverty income ratio of ≤ 1 (low income, > 1–≤ 3 (middle income), and > 3 (high income).