Table 1.
Estimates of mortality effects of ambient particulate matter (sulphate and black smoke) and ozone from cohort and time-series studies
| Outcome | Percentage change in mortality per 1 μg/m3 change in pollutant (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
|
Particle sulphate
| ||
| American Cancer Society cohort23 | All-cause | 0·88 (0·67 to 1·10) |
| American Cancer Society cohort23 | Cardiopulmonary | 1·01 (0·75 to 1·38) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=10) | All-cause | 0·21 (0·11 to 0·30) |
| Multi-city studies | ||
| 10 Canadian cities | All-cause | 0·40 (0·10 to 0·70) |
| 6 Californian counties | All-cause | 0·12 (−0·76 to 1·00) |
| 6 US communities | All-cause | 0·22 (0·13 to 0·31) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=5) | Cardiovascular | 0·09 (−0·04 to 0·21) |
| Multi-city studies | ||
| 6 Californian counties | Cardiovascular | 0·36 (−0·91 to 1·65) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=4) | Respiratory | 0·37 (−0·15 to 0·90) |
| Multi-city studies | Respiratory | 0·70 (−1·65 to 3·11) |
| 6 Californian counties | ||
|
| ||
|
Black smoke
| ||
| NLCS-AIR Study24 | All-cause | 0·49 (0·00 to 1·05) |
| NLCS-AIR Study24 | Cardiovascular | 0·39 (−0·51 to 1·23) |
| NLCS-AIR Study24 | Respiratory | 2·01 (−0·10 to 4·14) |
| PAARC25 | All-cause | 0·68 (0·30 to 0·96) |
| PAARC25 | Cardiopulmonary | 0·49 (0·00 to 1·14) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=25) | All-cause | 0·05 (0·03 to 0·07) |
| Multi-city studies | ||
| APHEA 1 (12 European cities) | All-cause | 0·03 (0·02 to 0·03) |
| APHEA 2 (29 European cities) | All-cause | 0·06 (0·03 to 0·08) |
| 13 Spanish cities | All-cause | 0·08 (0·04 to 0·12) |
| 9 Scottish sites | All-cause | 0·17 (0·07 to 0·26) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=20) | Cardiovascular | 0·04 (0·01 to 0·06) |
| Multi-city studies | ||
| APHEA 2 (15 cities) | Cardiovascular | 0·06 (0·03 to 0·09) |
| 13 Spanish cities | Cardiovascular | 0·03 (−0·02 to 0·08) |
| 9 Scottish sites | Cardiovascular | 0·04 (−0·10 to 0·18) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=20) | Respiratory | 0·04 (−0·02 to 0·11) |
| Multi-city studies | ||
| APHEA 2 (15 cities) | Respiratory | 0·08 (0·01 to 0·16) |
| 13 Spanish cities | Respiratory | 0·11 (0·04 to 0·18) |
| 9 Scottish sites | Respiratory | 0·52 (0·29 to 0·76) |
|
| ||
|
Ozone
| ||
| American Cancer Society cohort26 | All-cause | 0·02 (−0·08 to 0·14) |
| American Cancer Society cohort26 | Cardiovascular | 0·22 (0·06 to 0·46) |
| American Cancer Society cohort26 | Respiratory | 0·57 (0·20 to 0·94) |
|
| ||
|
Ozone (8 h)
| ||
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=22) | All-cause | 0·03 (0·02 to 0·04) |
| Multi-city study | ||
| APHEA 2 (23 cities) | All-cause | 0·003 (−0·018 to 0·024) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=19) | Cardiovascular | 0·04 (0·03 to 0·05) |
| Time-series studies | ||
| Single-city estimates (n=19) | Respiratory | 0·04 (0·01 to 0·07) |
Time-series coefficients for daily mortality are based on a systematic review and meta-analysis (webappendix pp 9–25).