Table 1.
Model parameters, their prior distributions (all uniform), posterior means and standard deviations (SD)
|
Model |
|
Prior |
|
Posterior |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Symbol | Specification | Refs. | Mean | SD |
| |
Natural history parameters |
||||
| Probability of HPV-16 transmission |
|
|
|
|
|
| From female to male |
β
w
m
|
U(0.10,1.00) |
[25] |
0.92 |
0.03 |
| From male to female |
β
m
w
|
U(0.10,1.00) |
[25] |
0.93 |
0.03 |
| Rate of clearance of HPV-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
| For women under 30 |
c
w1 |
U(0.50,1.17) |
[26-29] |
0.59 |
0.05 |
| For women over 30 |
c
w2 |
U(0.50,1.17) |
[26-29] |
0.60 |
0.05 |
| For men under 30 |
c
m1 |
U(0.55,1.66) |
[30,31] |
0.62 |
0.03 |
| For men over 30 |
c
m2 |
U(0.55,1.66) |
[30,31] |
0.63 |
0.03 |
| Probability of becoming latently infected |
|
|
|
|
|
| For women |
p
w
|
U(0.01,1.00) |
n/a |
0.11 |
0.04 |
| For men |
p
m
|
U(0.01,1.00) |
n/a |
0.09 |
0.05 |
| Rate of loss of immunity |
|
|
|
||
| For women under 30 |
w
w1 |
U(0.01,2.00) |
n/a |
1.65 |
0.16 |
| For women over 30 |
w
w2 |
U(0.01,2.00) |
n/a |
1.67 |
0.15 |
| For men under 30 |
w
m1 |
U(0.01,2.00) |
n/a |
1.78 |
0.14 |
| For men over 30 |
w
m2 |
U(0.01,2.00) |
n/a |
1.82 |
0.10 |
| |
Sexual behaviour parameters |
||||
| Degree of assortativity |
|
|
|
|
|
| By age group |
ε
a
|
U(0.05,0.95) |
n/a |
0.27 |
0.22 |
| By sexual activity group | ε s | U(0.05,0.95) | n/a | 0.64 | 0.21 |
Note that all parameters denote quantities averaged over the modelled population; the degrees of assortativity ε a and ε s are implemented as described in [32]; n/a indicates that there is no published literature to inform the choice of prior distribution and the values given are based on assumption. The choice of prior distributions is discussed in detail in Additional file 1: Technical Appendix.