Table 2.
Demographic and Clinical Predictors of Oesophageal Varices among 91 Patients with Endoscopic Diagnoses
| Demographic or clinical parameter | Patients without varices (N = 27) median (IQR) or number (%) | Patients with varices (N = 64) median (IQR) or number (%) | Univariable odds ratio [95% CI]* | P-value* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex |
|
|
|
0.88 |
| Female |
11 (41%) |
25 (39%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Male |
16 (59%) |
39 (61%) |
1.07 [0.43-2.68] |
|
| Age, years |
|
|
|
0.002 |
| 15-29 |
6 (22%) |
11 (17%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| 30-44 |
6 (22%) |
35 (55%) |
3.18 [0.85-11.9] |
|
| 45-59 |
3 (11%) |
12 (19%) |
2.18 [0.44-10.9] |
|
| ≥ 60 |
12 (44%) |
6 (9%) |
0.27 [0.07-1.10] |
|
| Live within 5 km of the lake |
|
|
|
< 0.001 |
| No |
19 (70%) |
11 (17%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
8 (30%) |
53 (83%) |
11.4 [4.00-32.7] |
|
| Working as a fisherman |
|
|
|
0.002*** |
| No |
27 (100%) |
48 (75%) |
*** |
|
| Yes |
0 |
16 (25%) |
|
|
| Highest education obtained |
|
|
|
0.10 |
| No or less than primary |
8 (30%) |
11 (17%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Completed primary |
12 (44%) |
45 (70%) |
2.73 [0.90-8.29] |
|
| Completed secondary |
1 (4%) |
3 (5%) |
2.18 [0.19-25.0] |
|
| Any college/university |
6 (22%) |
5 (8%) |
0.61 [0.14-2.71] |
|
| Source of water |
|
|
|
< 0.001*** |
| Piped/river/other |
27 (100%) |
31 (48%) |
*** |
|
| Lake |
0 |
33 (52%) |
|
|
| Poverty index** |
|
|
|
0.61 |
| ≤ 4 |
7 (26%) |
20 (31%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| > 4 |
20 (74%) |
44 (69%) |
0.77 [0.28-2.11] |
|
| Alcohol use in the past week |
|
|
|
0.19 |
| No |
19 (70%) |
53 (83%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
8 (30%) |
11 (17%) |
0.49 [0.17-1.41] |
|
| Aspirin/NSAID use in the past week |
|
|
|
0.54 |
| No |
26 (96%) |
62 (98%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
1 (4%) |
1 (2%) |
0.41 [0.02-6.85] |
|
|
Prior medical history |
|
|
|
|
| Reported history of prior haematemesis |
|
|
|
0.06 |
| No |
21 (78%) |
36 (56%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
6 (22%) |
28 (44%) |
2.72 [0.97-7.65] |
|
| Reported history of prior praziquantel use |
|
|
|
0.008 |
| No |
22 (81%) |
32 (50%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
5 (19%) |
32 (50%) |
4.40 [1.48-13.1] |
|
|
Clinical examination |
|
|
|
|
| Mean arterial blood pressure (mmHg) |
83 (70–87) |
70 (63–82) |
0.67 [0.49-0.93]+ |
0.02 |
| Heart rate (beats per minute) |
98 (88–110) |
105 (86–111) |
1.00 [0.98-1.03] |
0.78 |
| Ascites |
|
|
|
0.002 |
| No |
24 (89%) |
32 (50%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
3 (11%) |
32 (50%) |
8.00 [2.18-29.2] |
|
| Hepatomegaly |
|
|
|
0.98 |
| No |
24 (89%) |
57 (89%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
3 (11%) |
7 (11%) |
0.92 [0.23-4.12] |
|
| Splenomegaly |
|
|
|
< 0.001 |
| No |
23 (85%) |
5 (8%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
4 (15%) |
59 (92%) |
67.9 [16.7-275] |
|
| Encephalopathy |
|
|
|
0.54 |
| No |
26 (96%) |
63 (98%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Yes |
1 (4%) |
1 (2%) |
0.41 [0.02-6.85] |
|
|
Investigations |
|
|
|
|
| Hepatitis B surface Ag |
|
|
|
0.03 |
| Negative |
25 (93%) |
45 (70%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Positive |
2 (7%) |
19 (30%) |
5.27 [1.14 – 24.5] |
|
| Anti-Hepatitis C Ab |
|
|
|
0.54 |
| Negative |
26 (96%) |
63 (98%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Positive |
1 (4%) |
1 (2%) |
0.41 [0.02-6.85] |
|
| HIV |
|
|
|
0.63 |
| Negative |
26 (96%) |
60 (94%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Positive |
1 (4%) |
4 (6%) |
1.73 [0.18 – 16.3] |
|
| Schistosoma CCA |
|
|
|
0.01 |
| Negative |
19 (70%) |
26 (41%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| Positive |
8 (30%) |
38 (59%) |
3.47 [1.32-9.11] |
|
| Portal vein, mm |
|
|
|
< 0.001 |
| < 13 |
25 (93%) |
3 (5%) |
1 [reference] |
|
| ≥ 13 |
2 (7%) |
61 (95%) |
254 [40.0-1614] |
|
| Haemoglobin (g/dL) |
6.0 (4.0-9.9) |
4.2 (3.6-5.6) |
0.76 [0.64-0.91] |
0.002 |
| MCV (fl) |
82 (71–89) |
74 (67–80) |
0.59 [0.37-0.92]+ |
0.02 |
| Platelets (109/L) |
150 (103–215) |
103 (55–143) |
0.70 [0.45-1.11]++ |
0.13 |
| PTT (seconds) |
28 (26–32) |
30 (27–35) |
1.69 [0.75-3.79]+ |
0.20 |
| INR (ratio) |
1.2 (1.0-1.4) |
1.4 (1.1-1.7) |
1.37 [0.51-3.63] |
0.53 |
| Total bilirubin (μmol/L) |
8.8 (5.2-12.7) |
13.2 (7.7-21.7) |
1.07 [1.01-1.16] |
0.04 |
| Albumin (g/L) |
35 (30–44) |
32 (28–39) |
0.74 [0.44-1.24]+ |
0.25 |
| AST (U/L) |
22 (19–29) |
28 (19–49) |
1.23 [0.96-1.57]+ |
0.10 |
| ALT (U/L) | 17 (14–27) | 23 (15–47) | 1.20 [0.97-1.49] | 0.09 |
*Results from logistic regression models (Wald p-values).
**Poverty index > 4 indicates that a person does not have multidimensional poverty.
***Unable to calculate odds ratio due to a zero; p-value from Fisher's exact test.
+Per 10 units higher.
++Per 100 units higher.