Table 3.
Possible Prediction Rules for Oesophageal Varices
| Rule | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Single clinical condition: |
|
|
|
|
| Splenomegaly |
92 (83–97) |
85 (68–94) |
94 (85–98) |
82 (64–92) |
| Live within 5 km of the lake |
83 (72–90) |
70 (52–84) |
87 (76–93) |
63 (46–78) |
| Water sourced from lake |
52 (40–63) |
100 (88–100) |
100 (90–100) |
47 (34–59) |
| Ascites |
50 (38–62) |
89 (72–96) |
91 (78–97) |
43 (31–56) |
| History of praziquantel |
50 (38–62) |
81 (63–92) |
86 (72–94) |
41 (29–54) |
| Fisherman |
25 (16–37) |
100 (88–100) |
100 (81–100) |
36 (26–47) |
|
Ultrasound single condition: |
|
|
|
|
| Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm |
95 (87–98) |
93 (77–98) |
97 (89–99) |
89 (73–96) |
|
Combinations of clinical conditions: |
|
|
|
|
| Splenomegaly or water sourced from lake |
94 (85–98) |
85 (68–94) |
94 (85–98) |
85 (68–94) |
|
Combinations of clinical and ultrasound conditions: |
|
|
|
|
| Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or water sourced from lake |
98 (92–100) |
93 (77–98) |
97 (89–99) |
96 (81–99) |
| Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or water sourced from lake or ascites |
98 (92–100) |
89 (72–96) |
95 (87–98) |
96 (80–99) |
| Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or fisherman |
95 (87–98) |
93 (77–98) |
97 (89–99) |
89 (73–96) |
| Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or ascites | 95 (87–98) | 89 (72–96) | 95 (87–98) | 89 (72–96) |
This table shows single-condition rules and rules which met our primary criteria of sensitivity and PPV ≥ 90%, and additionally had specificity and NPV ≥ 85%.