Table 1.
Covariate estimates for models using data through May 2013
| Component | Variable | Full | Selected | Null |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poisson |
Intercept |
-11.21 |
-11.51 |
-12.68 |
| |
|
(-11.88, -10.51) |
(-11.83, -11.17) |
(-13.03, -12.37) |
| |
Population Immunity |
-2.50 |
-1.80 |
|
| |
|
(-3.32, -1.66) |
(-2.20, -1.44) |
|
| |
Zero-Dose Fraction |
-0.72 |
|
|
| |
|
(-1.47, -0.02) |
|
|
| |
Density |
0.02 |
|
|
| |
|
(-0.07, 0.11) |
|
|
| |
Sqrt Recent Cases |
-0.05 |
|
|
| |
|
(-0.11, 0.02) |
|
|
| |
Sqrt Neighboring Recent Cases |
0.02 |
|
|
| |
|
(-0.02, 0.05) |
|
|
| Bernoulli |
Intercept |
-0.91 |
-1.11 |
-3.60 |
| |
|
(-1.64, -0.16) |
(-1.42, -0.80) |
(-3.80, -3.43) |
| |
Population Immunity |
-4.86 |
-4.74 |
|
| |
|
(-5.69, -4.01) |
(-5.27, -4.21) |
|
| |
Zero-Dose Fraction |
-0.19 |
|
|
| |
|
(-1.12, 0.75) |
|
|
| |
Density |
-0.02 |
|
|
| |
|
(-0.11, 0.08) |
|
|
| |
Sqrt Recent Cases |
0.19 |
0.19 |
|
| |
|
(0.07, 0.31) |
(0.07, 0.32) |
|
| |
Sqrt Neighboring Recent Cases |
0.17 |
0.17 |
|
| |
|
(0.10, 0.23) |
(0.10, 0.23) |
|
| |
DIC |
9263.6 |
9266.8 |
10121.3 |
| |
N |
13932 |
13932 |
13932 |
| Variance |
Bernoulli CARa |
1.51 |
1.50 |
1.48 |
| Components |
|
(1.06, 2.08) |
(1.04, 2.04) |
(1.08, 1.98) |
| |
Bernoulli Indb |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
| |
|
(0.06, 0.17) |
(0.05, 0.18) |
(0.05, 0.15) |
| |
Poisson CARc |
0.49 |
0.46 |
0.67 |
| |
|
(0.24, 0.86) |
(0.22, 0.79) |
(0.39, 1.05) |
| |
Poisson Indd |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.15 |
| |
|
(0.08, 0.23) |
(0.07, 0.22) |
(0.08, 0.23) |
| |
Covariance CARe |
0.10 |
0.07 |
0.42 |
| |
|
(-0.23, 0.46) |
(-0.23, 0.39) |
(0.12, 0.77) |
| |
Covariance Indf |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
| (-0.05, 0.04) | (-0.07, 0.04) | (-0.06, 0.04) |
95% credible intervals (CI) are presented in parentheses underneath corresponding parameter estimates.
aSpatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
bNon-spatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
cSpatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
dNon-spatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
eSpatial random effect covariance.
fNon-spatial random effect covariance.