Table 2.
Coefficient estimates from the selected model applied historically
| Component | Variable | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poisson |
Intercept |
-11.42 |
-11.50 |
-11.60 |
-11.80 |
-12.20 |
| |
|
(-11.76, -11.09) |
(-11.87, -11.17) |
(-11.96, -11.24) |
(-12.22, -11.39) |
(-12.79, -11.69) |
| |
Population |
-1.95 |
-1.80 |
-1.60 |
-1.62 |
-1.28 |
| |
Immunity |
(-2.40, -1.51) |
(-2.30, -1.31) |
(-2.09, -1.10) |
(-2.14, -1.11) |
(-1.92, -0.61) |
| Binomial |
Intercept |
-0.81 |
-0.54 |
-0.75 |
-1.43 |
-1.89 |
| |
|
(-1.14, -0.46) |
(-0.91, -0.17) |
(-1.16, -0.35) |
(-1.81, -1.02) |
(-2.42, -1.36) |
| |
Population |
-5.24 |
-5.69 |
-5.03 |
-3.42 |
-3.17 |
| |
Immunity |
(-5.82, -4.65) |
(-6.34, -5.07) |
(-5.71, -4.36) |
(-4.18, -2.71) |
(-4.19, -2.20) |
| |
Sqrt Recent |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.18 |
0.13 |
0.18 |
| |
Cases |
(0.06, 0.32) |
(0.05, 0.30) |
(0.05, 0.31) |
(0.01, 0.26) |
(0.04, 0.33) |
| |
Sqrt Neighboring |
0.17 |
0.18 |
0.16 |
0.06 |
0.02 |
| |
Recent Cases |
(0.10, 0.24) |
(0.11, 0.25) |
(0.09, 0.23) |
(-0.01, 0.13) |
(-0.07, 0.10) |
| |
DIC |
8732.4 |
8306.9 |
8107.3 |
7798.5 |
6200.7 |
| |
N |
12384 |
10836 |
9288 |
7740 |
6192 |
| Variance |
Bernoulli CARa |
1.47 |
1.49 |
1.41 |
1.59 |
1.81 |
| Components |
|
(1.03, 2.03) |
(1.02, 2.06) |
(0.97, 1.98) |
(1.08, 2.23) |
(1.26, 2.52) |
| |
Bernoulli Indb |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.12 |
| |
|
(0.06, 0.19) |
(0.06, 0.19) |
(0.06, 0.19) |
(0.06, 0.19) |
(0.06, 0.22) |
| |
Poisson CARc |
0.47 |
0.49 |
0.50 |
0.51 |
0.61 |
| |
|
(0.22, 0.80) |
(0.24, 0.85) |
(0.24, 0.86) |
(0.25, 0.85) |
(0.30, 1.02) |
| |
Poisson Indd |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.18 |
| |
|
(0.07, 0.22) |
(0.07, 0.24) |
(0.08, 0.23) |
(0.08, 0.23) |
(0.10, 0.28) |
| |
Covariance CARe |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.26 |
0.36 |
| |
|
(-0.28, 0.34) |
(-0.31, 0.41) |
(-0.28, 0.38) |
(-0.10, 0.63) |
(-0.06, 0.76) |
| |
Covariance Indf |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.02 |
-0.03 |
| (-0.07, 0.04) | (-0.07, 0.04) | (-0.07, 0.04) | (-0.07, 0.04) | (-0.10, 0.04) |
Models are estimated using data through the first half of the year that identifies the model. 95% credible intervals (CI) are presented in parentheses underneath corresponding parameter estimates.
aSpatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
bNon-spatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
cSpatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
dNon-spatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
eSpatial random effect covariance.
fNon-spatial random effect covariance.