Table 5.
Selected results of Multi-state markov analysis: Transitions towards drug use cessation
| Primary Heroin | Primary MA | Primary Cocaine | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | ||||||
| Crime, past 30 days | |||||||||||
| Treatment | - | Abstinence | 0.83 | 0.66 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 1.47 | 1.19 | 0.96 | 1.47 |
| Non-daily | - | Treatment | 0.57 | 0.34 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.53 | 1.44 | 0.62 | 0.35 | 1.10 |
| Non-daily | - | Abstinence | 0.59 | 0.28 | 1.23 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 1.12 |
| Daily | - | Treatment | 1.15 | 0.96 | 1.36 | 0.84 | 0.61 | 1.15 | 0.93 | 0.66 | 1.32 |
| Daily | - | Abstinence | 1.03 | 0.64 | 1.66 | 0.81 | 0.55 | 1.18 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 1.73 |
| Daily | - | Non-daily | 1.74 | 1.02 | 2.95 | 1.54 | 0.84 | 2.81 | 1.43 | 0.81 | 2.51 |
| Cumulative Crime (>35% offollow-up) | |||||||||||
| Treatment | - | Abstinence | 0.92 | 0.74 | 1.14 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 0.62 | 0.98 |
| Non-daily | - | Treatment | 1.33 | 1.08 | 1.63 | 1.86 | 1.28 | 2.69 | 1.54 | 1.12 | 2.11 |
| Non-daily | - | Abstinence | 1.02 | 0.72 | 1.45 | 1.54 | 1.20 | 1.96 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| Daily | - | Treatment | 1.03 | 0.92 | 1.16 | 1.37 | 1.06 | 1.77 | 1.62 | 1.26 | 2.08 |
| Daily | - | Abstinence | 0.81 | 0.59 | 1.11 | 1.15 | 0.85 | 1.55 | 0.88 | 0.61 | 1.27 |
| Daily | - | Non-daily | 0.81 | 0.54 | 1.22 | 1.02 | 0.59 | 1.79 | 0.69 | 0.40 | 1.19 |
| Cumulative Incarceration (>25% offollow-up) | |||||||||||
| Treatment | - | Abstinence | 1.01 | 0.82 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.51 | 0.72 | 0.47 | 1.10 |
| Non-daily | - | Treatment | 1.03 | 0.83 | 1.26 | 1.72 | 1.01 | 2.93 | 0.49 | 0.25 | 0.97 |
| Non-daily | - | Abstinence | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.86 | 1.12 | 0.74 | 1.69 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.61 |
| Daily | - | Treatment | 0.90 | 0.80 | 1.01 | 1.12 | 0.77 | 1.63 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.96 |
| Daily | - | Abstinence | 0.81 | 0.60 | 1.11 | 1.06 | 0.65 | 1.71 | 0.66 | 0.37 | 1.16 |
| Daily | - | Non-daily | 0.64 | 0.41 | 0.99 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 1.04 | 0.61 | 0.27 | 1.41 |
| Cumulative Polydrug Use (>40% offollow-up) | |||||||||||
| Treatment | - | Abstinence | 1.81 | 1.29 | 2.55 | 1.35 | 1.10 | 1.65 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 1.02 |
| Non-daily | - | Treatment | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.37 | 0.74 | 0.49 | 1.12 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.95 |
| Non-daily | - | Abstinence | 1.57 | 0.88 | 2.81 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 1.13 | 0.80 | 0.64 | 0.99 |
| Daily | - | Treatment | 1.24 | 1.05 | 1.48 | 0.95 | 0.72 | 1.24 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 1.05 |
| Daily | - | Abstinence | 0.90 | 0.55 | 1.45 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 1.02 | 0.60 | 0.39 | 0.92 |
| Daily | - | Non-daily | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.76 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 1.20 | 0.89 | 0.54 | 1.47 |
| Time since drug use initiation (>5 years vs. <5 years) | |||||||||||
| Treatment | Abstinence | 0.82 | 0.61 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 0.73 | 1.14 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.79 | |
| Non-daily | - | Treatment | 3.18 | 2.36 | 429 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 1.93 | 2.08 | 1.66 | 2.61 |
| Non-daily | - | Abstinence | 0.88 | 0.55 | 1.41 | 1.10 | 0.87 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.18 | 1.53 |
| Daily | - | Treatment | 1.87 | 1.61 | 2.17 | 1.38 | 1.07 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.45 | 2.24 |
| Daily | - | Abstinence | 0.77 | 0.53 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 0.99 | 1.69 | 1.31 | 1.02 | 1.67 |
| Daily | - | Non-daily | 0.61 | 0.38 | 0.96 | 1.83 | 1.13 | 2.96 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.96 |
Controlling also for age at drug use initiation, gender and race (white vs. non-white), crime in the past 30 ays, cumulative durations of incarceration (> or <25% of follow-up), polydrug use (> or <40% of follow-up) and rime (> or <35% of follow-up), as well as an indicator of time since drug use initiation (> or <5 years).