Table 1. Sensitivity analysis of the fit statistic and fitted transmission parameters for varying duration of immunity and infectious period.
Test conducted | Parameter variation | Fitting parameters | Fit statistic (F) | |||
Parameter | Value tested | β0 | β1 | ν | ||
Parameters for best fit: α = 0.65; δ = 0.65; γ = 1/1.4; σ = 1/0.57 | - | - | 1.9896 | 0.6495 | 0.0438 | 89.5751 |
Reduction in infectiousness for adults | α | 0.5 | 2.5639 | 0.6775 | 0.0454 | 90.3653 |
α | 0.8 | 1.6300 | 0.6262 | 0.0436 | 89.6733 | |
Reduction in susceptibility for adults | δ | 0.5 | 2.5534 | 0.6279 | 0.0445 | 90.1470 |
δ | 0.8 | 1.6488 | 0.6667 | 0.0468 | 90.2240 | |
Variation to latency period | 1/σ | 1/0.28 | 1.9113 | 0.5879 | 0.0474 | 90.0338 |
1/σ | 1/0.86 | 2.1255 | 0.6618 | 0.0457 | 92.3239 | |
Variation to infectious period | 1/γ | 1/1.14 | 2.3617 | 0.6478 | 0.0464 | 91.6664 |
1/γ | 1/1.57 | 1.8289 | 0.6599 | 0.0428 | 90.2565 |
The assumed values of the parameters are α = 0.65; δ = 0.65; γ = 1/1.4; and σ = 1/0.57 unless otherwise varied, as indicated in the table.