Table 1.

Probabilities of Health Outcomes

Model Input	Base Case Estimate	Sensitivity Analysis Range
Prevalence of perimetric glaucoma13
50–59 y	4.1%
60–69 y	6.7%
70–79 y	14.8%
≥80 y	23.2%
9-y incidence of perimetric glaucoma14
50–59 y	3.6%
60–69 y	6.6%
≥70 y	7.9%
Sensitivity of SD-OCT15	0.85	0.85–0.95
Specificity of SD-OCT15	0.95	0.85–0.95
Population baseline visual field, probability distribution function left skewed with right tail, measured in dB16	Median −2.5 dB Range +2 to −17
Visual function loss/yr, probability distribution function left skewed with right tail, measured in dB18	Median −0.5 dB Range 0 to −7
Hazard ratio of progression/age over 50 y19	1.01
Time horizon10	10 y	2–10
Reduction in visual field progression in treated patients	0.5020–22	0.3–0.7
Follow-up after screening28,29	0.60	0.40–0.80