Table 2.
Sensitivity analysis variables, base case, minimum and maximum values
| Input parameter | Nigeria |
Kenya |
Bangladesh |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Min | Max | Base case | Min | Max | Base case | Min | Max | |
| Campaign cost | US$40 479 | US$20 239 | US$60 718 | US$34 280 | US$17 140 | US$51 420 | US$35 658 | US$17 829 | US$53 486 |
| Cost per death malaria | US$97.50 | US$48.75 | US$146.25 | US$65.00 | US$32.50 | US$97.50 | US$72.22 | US$36.11 | US$108.33 |
| Cost per death diarrhoea | US$156.00 | US$78.00 | US$234.00 | US$104.00 | US$52.00 | US$156.00 | US$115.56 | US$57.78 | US$173.34 |
| Cost per non-fatal case malaria | US$11.70 | US$5.85 | US$17.55 | US$7.80 | US$3.90 | US$11.70 | US$8.67 | US$4.33 | US$13.00 |
| Cost per non-fatal case diarrhoea | US$10.50 | US$5.25 | US$15.75 | US$7.00 | US$3.50 | US$10.50 | US$7.78 | US$3.89 | US$11.67 |
| Annual cost ART | US$938 | US$469 | US$1407 | US$766 | US$383 | US$1150 | US$766 | US$383 | US$1150 |
| Discount rate | 0.03 | 0.015 | 0.045 | 0.03 | 0.015 | 0.045 | 0.03 | 0.015 | 0.045 |
| Access to care diarrhoea | 0.565 | 0.424 | 0.706 | 0.678 | 0.509 | 0.848 | 0.663 | 0.497 | 0.829 |
| Access to care malaria | 0.684 | 0.583 | 0.855 | 0.684 | 0.583 | 0.855 | 0.684 | 0.583 | 0.855 |
| Access to ART | 0.7 | 0.42 | 0.98 | 0.7 | 0.42 | 0.98 | 0.7 | 0.42 | 0.98 |
| Years on ART | 22 | 11 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 33 |
| HIV prevalence | 0.036 | 0.018 | 0.054 | 0.063 | 0.032 | 0.095 | 0.0006 | 0.0003 | 0.0009 |
| Baseline cases p1000py Malaria | 351.6 | 175.8 | 527.5 | 57.0 | 28.5 | 85.5 | 6.13 | 3.06 | 9.19 |
| Baseline cases p1000py diarrhoea | 765.3 | 382.7 | 1148.0 | 542.0 | 271.0 | 813.0 | 299.81 | 149.91 | 449.72 |
| Propor fatal malaria | 0.008 | 0.004 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.006 | 0.018 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Propor fatal diarrhoea | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.0007 | 0.0004 | 0.0011 |
| Participants per HH | 2.5 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 2.5 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 2.5 | 1.25 | 3.75 |
| DALYs fatal malaria | 27.8 | 13.9 | 41.7 | 27.8 | 13.9 | 41.7 | 27.8 | 13.9 | 41.7 |
| DALYs fatal diarrhoea | 27.8 | 13.9 | 41.7 | 27.8 | 13.9 | 41.7 | 27.8 | 13.9 | 41.7 |
| DALYs non-fatal malaria | 0.366 | 0.183 | 0.549 | 0.366 | 0.183 | 0.549 | 0.366 | 0.183 | 0.549 |
| DALYs non-fatal diarrhoea | 0.127 | 0.064 | 0.191 | 0.127 | 0.064 | 0.191 | 0.127 | 0.064 | 0.191 |
| Protect. mortality malaria | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 |
| Protect. mortality diarrhoea | 0.630 | 0.315 | 0.945 | 0.630 | 0.315 | 0.945 | 0.630 | 0.315 | 0.945 |
| Protect. non-fatal malaria | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 |
| Protect. non-fatal diarrhoea | 0.628 | 0.314 | 0.941 | 0.628 | 0.314 | 0.941 | 0.628 | 0.314 | 0.941 |
| Protect. mortality HIV transmission | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 |
| Protect. mortality HIV acquisition | 0.255 | 0.128 | 0.383 | 0.255 | 0.128 | 0.383 | 0.255 | 0.128 | 0.383 |
| Multiplier: secondary effects HIV | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Duration of benefit malaria | 3 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 4.5 |
| Duration of benefit diarrhoea | 3 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 4.5 |
| Duration of benefit HIV | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
All variables have β distributions with α and β parameters of 2. Minimum and maximum values are 0.5 and 1.5 of base case values, respectively, except for access to diarrhoea disease care and malaria care which have minimum and maximums of 0.6 and 1.4, and access to HIV ART which has a minimum and maximum of 0.75 and 1.25. Bold figures represent values that change with each country.
ART, antiretroviral therapy; DALY, disability-adjusted life-year.