Figure 3.

(a) Proportion of supertree nodes with a proportional likelihood of more than 0.5 for displaying carotenoid-consistent plumage colours. If extinction has occurred at similar rates in lineages with and without carotenoid-consistent colours, then the evolutionary reconstruction based on the Jetz et al. supertree [21] predicts a relative increase in colourful lineages since the Palaeocene Epoch (66–56 Myr). Node proportion was calculated with two types of time bin, Cenozoic Epoch midpoint and every 10 Myr since the Palaeocene. The likelihood that ancestors could display carotenoid feather pigments was reconstructed using three rate categories (AIC = 4002.5, 11 transition rates). (b) The relative increase in the number of colourful lineages can also be described without an absolute time framework. This curve shows the proportion of coeval avian families with carotenoid-consistent feather colours, tracked as the 236 families originate through time. The MRCA of each extant avian family has been ordered according to the origination sequence of Jetz et al. [21]. The proportion of families with carotenoid-consistent colours is tracked as the origination sequence unfolds and the number of coeval crown-lineage families accumulates (i.e. in relative and not absolute time). As above, the likelihood that a family MRCA could display carotenoid feather pigments was reconstructed using three transition rate categories. (Online version in colour.)