Table 2.
Baseline model: mean and, in brackets, equal-tailed 95% credible interval of the marginal posterior distribution of the parameters for each specified model. Basic: reporting rates constant in time and across the age groups. TVR: Time-Varying Reporting, i.e. age-specific and time-dependent reporting rates as defined by the piecewise linear function given in Eq. (25).
| Baseline model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no-overdispersion | with-overdispersion | |||
| basic | TVR | basic | TVR | |
| DIC | 2778.4 | 2614.5 | 1463.1 | 1455.7 |
| log-likelihood | −1386.9 | −1304.4 | −728.2 | −725.8 |
| (−1384.4, −1391.1) | (−1301.1, −1309.4) | (−725.5, −732.7) | (−722.6, −731.1) | |
| R | 1.417 | 1.379 | 1.321 | 1.315 |
| (1.411, 1.424) | (1.371, 1.389) | (1.299, 1.343) | (1.282, 1.350) | |
| I0 | 2123 | 3174 | 7626 | 6249 |
| (1794, 2502) | (2586, 3803) | (3982, 9850) | (2081, 9747) | |
| σ1 | 3.401 | 3.227 | 3.787 | 3.516 |
| (3.296, 3.506) | (3.131, 3.328) | (3.009, 4.652) | (2.844, 4.289) | |
| σ2 | 2.308 | 2.174 | 2.040 | 1.999 |
| (2.264, 2.349) | (2.128, 2.220) | (1.757, 2.347) | (1.704, 2.355) | |
| σ3 | fixed at 1 | fixed at 1 | fixed at 1 | fixed at 1 |
| σ4 | 0.688 | 0.690 | 0.981 | 0.985 |
| (0.646, 0.731) | (0.649, 0.733) | (0.725, 1.306) | (0.737, 1.303) | |
| ρ1 = ⋯ = ρ4 | 0.178 | 0.217 | 0.175 | 0.311 |
| (0.174, 0.183) | (0.205, 0.237) | (0.148, 0.206) | (0.191, 0.556) | |
| a | - | 0.952 | - | 0.603 |
| - | (0.852, 0.998) | - | (0.257, 0.955) | |
| b | - | 0.220 | - | 0.300 |
| - | (0.150, 0.302) | - | (0.094, 0.682) | |
| r | - | - | 8.092 | 8.776 |
| - | - | (5.170, 11.794) | (5.476, 13.070) | |