Table 3.
ADR and TVR with-overdispersion models (Susceptibility and Immunity variants): mean and, in brackets, equal-tailed 95% credible interval of the marginal posterior distribution of the parameters for each specified model. ADR: Age-Dependent Reporting, i.e. reporting rates constant in time and age-specific. TVR: Time-Varying Reporting, i.e. age-specific and time-dependent reporting rates as defined by the piecewise linear function given in Eq. (25).
| With-overdispersion | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susceptibility model | Immunity model | |||
| ADR | TVR | ADR | TVR | |
| DIC | 1473.0 | 1453.0 | 1471.5 | 1455.2 |
| log-likelihood | −733.0 | −730.7 | −732.3 | −730.4 |
| (−730.1, −737.9) | (−727.4, −736.0) | (−729.4, −737.2) | (−727.1, −735.6) | |
| R | 1.297 | 1.276 | 1.296 | 1.274 |
| (1.275, 1.318) | (1.236, 1.322) | (1.274, 1.316) | (1.234, 1.317) | |
| I0 | 2431 | 3197 | 2251 | 3150 |
| (1394, 4043) | (639, 8227) | (1287, 3702) | (706, 8122) | |
| ρ1 | 0.246 | 0.361 | 0.267 | 0.365 |
| (0.197, 0.305) | (0.167, 0.735) | (0.215, 0.332) | (0.177, 0.708) | |
| ρ2 | 0.165 | 0.228 | 0.177 | 0.227 |
| (0.134, 0.204) | (0.106, 0.464) | (0.143, 0.218) | (0.109, 0.441) | |
| ρ3 | 0.073 | 0.108 | 0.082 | 0.112 |
| (0.059, 0.091) | (0.050, 0.221) | (0.067, 0.101) | (0.054, 0.217) | |
| ρ4 | 0.069 | 0.105 | 0.078 | 0.109 |
| (0.055, 0.088) | (0.048, 0.217) | (0.062, 0.099) | (0.052, 0.214) | |
| a | - | 0.971 | - | 1.032 |
| - | (0.284, 2.140) | - | (0.336, 2.228) | |
| b | - | 0.345 | - | 0.387 |
| - | (0.082, 0.888) | - | (0.101, 0.965) | |
| r | 6.741 | 7.292 | 6.925 | 7.403 |
| (4.280, 9.906) | (4.600, 10.728) | (4.400, 10.197) | (4.660, 10.983) | |