Table 1. Differences between the models.
4-stage DM (synthetic epidemics) | 1-stage DM | Complex MOT (cMOT) | Generic MOT (gMOT) | |
Input parameters | Calibrated | Same as 4-stage DM, except for HIV infectivity | Same as 1-stage DM | Same as 1-stage DM |
Biological structure | ||||
Differential HIV infectivity by stage of HIV | Yes | No | No | No |
STI co-factor increases HIV susceptibility per sex-act | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
STI co-factor increases HIV infectivity per sex-act | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
Condom-use reduces HIV transmission | Fraction of partnerships where condoms are used | Same as 4-stage DM | Same as 4-stage DM | Fraction of sex acts protected |
Sexual structure | ||||
Multiple HIV exposures | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
Turn-over between risk-groups | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Subgroup size | See Table 2 | Same as 4-stage DM | Same as 4-stage DM | Aggregate the two MP classes |
Subgroup sexual behaviours | See Table 2 | Same as 4-stage DM | Same as 4-stage DM | Weighted average of the two types of commercial partnerships, and two MP groups |
Secondary, or indirect transmission events | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Can the model provide the following information? | ||||
The distribution of new HIV infections acquired by different subgroups (MOT metric)? | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
What is the fraction of new HIV infections transmitted from a given subgroup? | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Estimate contribution of specific partnerships/risk-groups to overall transmission in the total population, over t years? | PAFt | PAFt | No | No |
DM (dynamical model). MOT (Modes of Transmission model). PAFt (population attributable fraction over t years) reflects the contribution of each type of partnership to overall transmission. MP (multiple partnership). STI (sexually transmitted infection; in this study, only HSV-2 is considered).