Table 8.

The simulated impact of increase in cigarette tax on cigarette consumption and revenue in Bangladesh.

	Baseline	Simulation A	Simulation B	Simulation C
	Tiered ad valorem (Low-39%, Medium- 56%, High- 59%, Premium- 61% of retail price)	Uniform ad valorem at 61% of retail price	Uniform ad valorem at 61% of retail price with a specific minimum of 20 Taka (in 2012 prices) per pack of 10 sticks	Uniform specific tax of 22 Taka (in 2012 prices) per pack of 10 sticks
Average excise tax per pack of 10 sticks (2012 Taka)	11.89	20.90	21.18	21.57
Average excise tax share in retail price (%)	53%	61%	61%	57%
Average total tax (excise tax and VAT) share in retail price (%)	68%	76%	76%	72%
Average price per pack of 10 sticks (in 2012 Taka)	22.46	34.26	34.65	35.67
% change in real price		53%	54%	59%
Number of cigarette smokers (million)	19.9	16.4	16.2	15.7
Annual consumption (million packs of 10 sticks)	7,603	5,490	5,388	5,125
% change in annual consumption		−27.8%	−29.1%	−32.6%
Revenue (million in 2012 Taka)	116,045	154,372	153,497	142,376
% change in real revenue		33.0%	32.3%	22.7%