Table 1. Median (5th and 95th percentiles) of epidemic duration, number of infected herds, number of surveillance visits, direct costs, export loss and the total costs of the epidemic, that were initiated in cattle herds in high (highCat) and low (lowCat) cattle density area, swine herds in high (highPig) and low (lowPig) swine density area and in sheep herds (sheep).
| Epidemic duration (days)1 | Infected herds | Surveillance visits | Direct Costs (€×106) | Export loss (€×106) | Total costs (€×106) | |
| highCat | ||||||
| Basic | 45 (14–113) | 56 (10–192) | 11,122 (1,896–35,839) | 31 (10–103) | 491 (388–720) | 522 (400–829) |
| PZ5 | 44 (13–110) | 56 (9–182) | 12,345*2 (1,869–35,485) | 31 (10–97) | 487 (386–718) | 519 (398–800) |
| SZ15 | 43 (13–95) | 51* (9–167) | 16,125*** (3,089–37,513) | 39*** (12–128) | 504 (386–743) | 544** (399–860) |
| SZ20 | 41*** (13–92) | 48*** (9–165) | 17,225*** (3,304–38,697) | 44*** (13–193) | 506*** (395–842) | 551*** (408–1,036) |
| PZ5+SZ15 | 43 (14–99) | 53 (10–175) | 16,606*** (3,042–39,932) | 39*** (12–139) | 502* (388–748) | 541*** (402–887) |
| PZ5+SZ20 | 41*** (13–94) | 47*** (9–151) | 17,923*** (4,242–40,728) | 45*** (14–193) | 507*** (388–849) | 553*** (404–1,053) |
| lowCat | ||||||
| Basic | 57 (17–129) | 77 (13–269) | 12,746 (1,582–37,561) | 34 (10–105) | 522 (393–766) | 558 (405–858) |
| PZ5 | 58 (18–131) | 77 (13–243) | 13,644* (1,928–38,532) | 33 (10–101) | 524 (394–748) | 558 (405–839) |
| SZ15 | 50*** (16–119) | 70** (12–230) | 16,817*** (2,217–42,861) | 39*** (11–140) | 517 (392–793) | 556 (405–924) |
| SZ20 | 50*** (15–113) | 65*** (12–223) | 19,609*** (2,675–45,737) | 45*** (12–193) | 525 (396–845) | 571*** (409–1,032) |
| PZ5+SZ15 | 51*** (17–116) | 66** (12–238) | 17,412*** (2,573–44,438) | 38** (11–143) | 515 (400–800) | 553 (412–933) |
| PZ5+SZ20 | 50*** (16–117) | 64*** (12–235) | 19,307*** (2,879–48,430) | 44*** (13–203) | 521 (399–893) | 564*** (415–1,101) |
| highPig | ||||||
| Basic | 33 (7–101) | 27 (4–129) | 4,852 (656–26,873) | 18 (8–72) | 451 (364–657) | 468 (372–726) |
| PZ5 | 35 (7–98) | 28 (4–124) | 5,437* (837–26,347) | 19 (8–67) | 452 (360–659) | 469 (369–717) |
| SZ15 | 32 (7–90) | 26 (4–114) | 8,074*** (1,283–30,486) | 24** (10–83) | 453 (366–661) | 477* (379–745) |
| SZ20 | 33 (6–84) | 25 (4–102) | 10,867*** (1,529–33,674) | 28*** (11–104) | 466*** (366–700) | 494*** (378–802) |
| PZ5+SZ15 | 33 (7–83) | 26 (4–112) | 8,513*** (1,281–31,010) | 24*** (10–82) | 455 (368–644) | 476*** (380–722) |
| PZ5+SZ20 | 32* (7–85) | 26 (4–100) | 10,456*** (1,746–34,406) | 28*** (11–105) | 458** (372–699) | 486*** (385–803) |
| lowPig | ||||||
| Basic | 38 (7–113) | 32 (4–158) | 5,670 (588–25,611) | 18 (7–66) | 459 (364–679) | 477 (372–743) |
| PZ5 | 39 (7–108) | 31 (4–151) | 5,996 (737–27,280) | 17 (7–65) | 460 (359–673) | 479 (367–732) |
| SZ15 | 33*** (7–95) | 28*** (4–114) | 7,811*** (1,034–29,805) | 21*** (8–73) | 451 (361–656) | 472 (371–727) |
| SZ20 | 33*** (8–94) | 27*** (4–114) | 10,452*** (1,631–34,370) | 25*** (8–93) | 461 (366–693) | 486 (376–770) |
| PZ5+SZ15 | 33** (8–94) | 29*** (4–121) | 8,642*** (1,180–30,925) | 21*** (8–76) | 458 (362–639) | 479 (371–718) |
| PZ5+SZ20 | 31*** (8–92) | 25*** (4–117) | 10,268*** (1,757–36,752) | 24*** (9–100) | 455 (371–704) | 479 (380–813) |
| Sheep | ||||||
| Basic | 30 (2–100) | 20 (2–138) | 3,341 (365–25,220) | 13 (6–70) | 435 (346–658) | 449 (354–722) |
| PZ5 | 31 (2–97) | 21 (2–126) | 3,823* (410–26,260) | 14 (6–66) | 438 (345–641) | 450 (352–710) |
| SZ15 | 30 (2–87) | 20 (2–121) | 5,692*** (571–31,770) | 17*** (7–81) | 440 (352–657) | 458* (360–729) |
| SZ20 | 27 (3–83) | 18 (2–114) | 7,811*** (795–32,775) | 20*** (8–112) | 441* (350–710) | 463** (360–823) |
| PZ5+SZ15 | 28 (2–96) | 17 (2–124) | 5,365*** (632–33,031) | 16*** (7–88) | 435 (349–683) | 452 (357–761) |
| PZ5+SZ20 | 27* (3–83) | 19 (2–108) | 7,544*** (821–31,203) | 19*** (8–98) | 439 (354–680) | 460** (363–782) |
Basic control strategy as described by Danish and European legislation was modelled (Basic), and compared to alternative scenarios, with enlargements of the protection zone from 3 km to 5 km (PZ5) and surveillance zone from 10 km to 15 km (SZ15) or 20 km (SZ20), and a combination of these enlargements.
1
Epidemic duration is calculated from detection of the first herd in the epidemic to the last herd is depopulated.
2
Statistical significance level in comparison to the corresponding variable in the corresponding basic scenario (absence of a star represents a P-value ≥0.05, * represents a P-value <0.05, ** represents a P-value <0.01, and *** represents a P-value <0.001).