Table 7.

C Statistics for Progression to Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration Based on Models with Different Combinations of Genetic, Environmental, and Macular Characteristics in Overall, Derivation, and Test Samples

	Overall Sample		Derivation Sample*		Test Sample*
Model	5-Year Progression Area Under the Curve ± Standard Error	10-Year Progression Area Under the Curve ± Standard Error	5-Year Progression Area Under the Curve ± Standard Error	10-Year Progression Area Under the Curve ± Standard Error	5-Year Progression Area Under the Curve ± Standard Error	10-Year Progression Area Under the Curve ± Standard Error
A	0.790±0.011	0.810±0.009	0.805±0.015	0.814±0.013	0.774±0.017	0.798±0.013
B	0.873±0.009	0.901±0.007	0.887±0.011	0.907±0.009	0.869±0.013	0.900±0.009
C	0.885±0.008	0.915±0.006	0.899±0.010	0.919±0.008	0.876± 0.012	0.908±0.009
Model A vs C (P value)	<0.001	<0.001
Model B vs C (P value)	0.010	<0.001

Model A: Genetic and environmental variables: Smoking (never, past, current), body mass index (<25, 25–29.9, 30+), education (≤high school, >high school), antioxidant treatment (yes, no), AMD status at baseline, CFH Y402H (TT, CT, CC), CFHrs1410966 (TT, CT, CC), ARMS2/HTRA1 (GG, GT, TT), C2 (GG, CG/CC), CFB (CC, CT/TT), C3 (CC, CG, GG).

Model B: Macular drusen and environmental variables: Smoking (never, past, current), body mass index (<25, 25–29.9, 30+), education (≤high school, >high school), antioxidant treatment (yes, no), AMD status at baseline and drusen size in each eye (μm) as shown in Table 4.

Model C: All variables in models A and B.

^*Derivation sample, n = 1505; test sample, n = 1432.